固收-2026海外：大浪之前

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economic outlook for 2026, focusing on tax policies, inflation, employment, and the impact of the AI sector on the market [1][4][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - Tariff Legality and Impact: The legality of Trump's IEP tariffs is under challenge, with a market expectation of over 70% probability that they will be deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. This could significantly affect stock trading strategies [1][3]. - Economic Growth from the Inflation Reduction Act: The Inflation Reduction Act is expected to boost GDP growth by approximately 0.4 percentage points in 2026 through tax cuts, despite potential declines in social welfare programs [1][5]. - Midterm Elections Influence: The Trump administration may implement measures to stabilize the stock market and avoid actions that could harm it, as the midterm elections approach. This includes potential reductions in tariffs on consumer goods and food [1][6]. - Deficit Projections: The U.S. deficit rate is projected to decrease to about 5.9% in 2025 due to spending cuts and increased tariff revenues, but is expected to rebound to approximately 6.2% in 2026 due to fiscal expansion [1][7][8]. - AI Bubble Concerns: There are rising concerns about an AI bubble, characterized by high market concentration and overvaluation in the tech sector. The bubble is expected to remain stable until 2026, with potential risks of bursting in 2027 or 2028 [1][9][10]. Additional Important Content - Inflation and Employment Forecasts: The CPI growth rate for 2026 is anticipated to fluctuate between 2.8% and 3.1%, with unemployment peaking at 4.6% in early 2026 before gradually declining to 4.3%-4.4% by year-end [4][11]. - Investment Trends: AI-related investments are expected to continue growing but at a slower rate, while non-AI investments may rebound due to lower interest rates and improved confidence in capital expenditures [4][12]. - Market Outlook: The stock market is projected to continue rising in 2026, albeit with increased volatility. Short-term bond yields are expected to decrease, while long-term yields will remain high [4][13][14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic landscape and potential investment opportunities and risks for 2026.