中国经济观察：企业高管对商业前景、反内卷与供应链转移的看法-China Economic Perspectives_ C-Suite take on business outlook, anti-involution and supply chain shift

Summary of Key Points from the UBS Evidence Lab China C-Suite Business Survey Industry Overview - The survey involved over 400 senior corporate executives, focusing on the outlook for US-China relations, trade dynamics, supply chain shifts, and corporate strategies in response to economic conditions [2][7]. Core Insights Improving Sentiment on US-China Relations - Expectations regarding US-China relations have improved, with 21% of respondents anticipating a trade deal in Q4 2025, and 40% expecting it in H1 2026 [9]. - The share of respondents expecting further deterioration in relations has decreased from 69% in April 2025 to 61% in September 2025 [8]. Recovery in Export Orders - Export orders have rebounded, with 48% of manufacturing firms reporting higher orders compared to the previous year, a significant improvement from a net decrease of 35% in June 2025 [14]. - Orders to non-US markets are outperforming, with a net 31% reporting increased orders, while US-bound orders remain weak, with a net 36% reporting lower orders [14]. Supply Chain Shifts - 52% of manufacturing exporters are considering moving production overseas, a decrease from 63% in June 2025 [3][27]. - Over 60% of respondents already have 40-50% of their production overseas, indicating a notable shift in supply chain strategies [3][28]. Anti-Involution Measures - 84% of respondents have implemented anti-involution measures, which include tighter environmental regulations and guidance on sales prices [4][36]. - Expectations for capacity cuts are weak, but there is optimism regarding price increases and profit margins, with 54% expecting higher production costs in 2026 [37][46]. Corporate Hiring Intentions - Hiring momentum has softened, with only 38% of firms increasing hiring year-over-year, down from 41% in Q2 2025 [51]. - Manufacturing sector hiring has improved, with 54% of exporters expecting to increase hiring, contrasting with weaker hiring in construction and services [52]. Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Intentions - CAPEX intentions have softened, with only 35% of respondents expecting increased CAPEX in 2025 compared to 2024, down from 46% in April 2025 [44][49]. - The ongoing anti-involution campaign is influencing these softer CAPEX intentions, particularly through tighter approvals for new capacity [44][45]. Pricing Power and Profit Margins - A net 10% of respondents expect to raise prices in H2 2025, reflecting improved pricing power compared to previous surveys [46]. - Expectations for net profit margins to rise sequentially in H2 2025 have increased, with 31% anticipating improvements [46]. Additional Important Insights - Concerns over non-US trading partners' policies have increased, particularly regarding potential restrictions from Canada, Mexico, and Europe [20]. - Corporate responses to higher tariffs include shifting orders to overseas factories and expanding exports to non-US markets [22]. - Credit demand remains weak, with fewer firms expecting increased credit needs in 2025 compared to 2024 [48]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the UBS Evidence Lab China C-Suite Business Survey, highlighting the evolving landscape of corporate strategies in response to trade dynamics and economic conditions.