亚洲科技硬件：2025 年回顾-亮点、不足与经验总结-Asia Tech Hardware_ Hits, Misses, and Lessons Learned - 2025 in review

Summary of Asia Tech Hardware Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia Tech Hardware industry, particularly in the context of AI server growth and supply chain dynamics related to major players like Nvidia and Apple. Key Points and Arguments 1. GB200 Rack Performance: The ramp-up of the GB200 rack was slower than Nvidia's initial expectations, raising concerns about AI sentiment in the second half of 2025. The sentiment shift occurred earlier than anticipated due to factors like Deepseek and tariff concerns, which reversed in subsequent months. CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) are increasing capital expenditures (capex) each quarter, indicating strong growth potential for AI servers in 2026 [1][2][3]. 2. AI Sentiment Fluctuations: Since 2023, AI sentiment has experienced corrections one to two times per year. Concerns about an AI bubble, capex adjustments, and delayed product launches have pressured stock prices. However, the ongoing penetration of AI into daily life supports multi-year growth in the AI server and edge AI supply chain [2][3]. 3. Thermal and Power Management: The importance of thermal and power management in the AI value chain was validated, leading to strong performance from companies like Delta and Chroma. In contrast, Quanta underperformed due to a less attractive business model and intense competition [3][4]. 4. Challenges for New Racks: The deployment of new racks like Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra may face challenges similar to those encountered with the GB200 in early 2025. The cyclical nature of AI sentiment corrections may create better entry points for select stocks [2][4]. 5. Chip Demand and Hardware Components: The demand for increasingly powerful chips necessitates advanced hardware components. Companies that provide limited integration windows for suppliers, like Nvidia, highlight the value of R&D and product reliability over cost for critical components [4][5]. 6. Unimicron's Market Position: Unimicron's market share trajectory in Nvidia's ABF was in line with projections, but challenges in its HDI business, including yield issues and competition from VGT, delayed margin recovery by about a year [5][6]. 7. Apple's Supply Chain Movement: Apple's supply chain shift to India has progressed faster than expected, negatively impacting Luxshare. However, Luxshare's AI narratives have been favorable. On the Android side, Sunny's margin recovery is on track, aided by smartphone camera upgrades and ADAS penetration in China [8][9]. 8. China's Component Supply: The trade war has not hindered China's ability to supply components for AI servers, particularly in areas where it excels technologically. The saturated smartphone market favors consumer electronics companies that diversify into new growth areas [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - Stock Ratings and Price Targets: - Delta Electronics: Outperform, PT = NT$1190 - Chroma ATE: Outperform, PT = NT$830 - Quanta Computer: Underperform, PT = NT$250 - Unimicron Technology: Outperform, PT = NT$220 - Luxshare Precision: Outperform, PT = RMB74 - Sunny Optical: Outperform, PT = HK$110 - Largan Precision: Market-Perform, PT = NT$2400 [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. - Market Performance: Stocks rated as Outperform have generally outperformed the Taiwan Index in 2025, while Quanta and Largan have underperformed [20][24]. - Investment Implications: The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on their ability to navigate the cyclical nature of AI sentiment and the ongoing demand for advanced hardware components [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Asia Tech Hardware industry and its key players.