全球能源：2026 年能源展望-Global Energy_ Energy into 2026

Summary of Key Points from Citi Research Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Global Energy sector, particularly the upstream investment outlook for 2026, indicating an improving appetite for investment despite lingering crude price risks [4][5]. Global Upstream Spending Outlook - Total Global Upstream Spending is projected as follows (in billion USD): - 2025E: 247 - 2026E: 242 - 2027E: 247 - Notable changes: 2026 is expected to see a 2% decrease compared to 2025, but a 2% increase in 2027 compared to 2026 [5]. Regional Insights - China: Expected spending remains stable at 57 billion for both 2026 and 2025, with a 3% increase in 2027. - Latin America: Anticipated growth of 5% from 2025 to 2026, reaching 28 billion. - Middle East/North Africa: Slight decrease of 1% in 2026, maintaining 84 billion. - Asia (Other) & Australia: A significant drop of 27% in 2026, down to 11 billion. - International Oil Companies (IOCs): Expected to decrease spending by 2% in 2026, maintaining 61 billion [5]. U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. shale oil volumes are highly dependent on oil prices, with limited swing potential of a few hundred thousand barrels per day [14]. - The Delaware basin has seen a sharp drop in productivity, while other major basins show mixed results [14]. Brazil's Oil Production - Brazil's oil production is expected to increase due to a pipeline of new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units, with Petrobras accounting for approximately 64% of Brazil's total oil and gas production [15][21]. - Underinvestment in exploration is eroding reserve replacement, despite ongoing production growth [22]. Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Capital Expenditure - MENA capital expenditure is set to peak next year, with Saudi Arabia leading in capital expenditure, particularly in the Jafurah shale project [25]. - The UAE is increasing its midstream and LNG investments, while Qatar continues steady expansion [25]. LNG Market Dynamics - The U.S. is expected to add 50% of new global LNG capacity, potentially absorbing most of the oversupply impact by 2030 [30]. - An estimated 6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of global oversupply is anticipated by 2030, with the U.S. absorbing a significant share [31]. - LNG supply is expected to exceed 35 bcfd of capacity by 2030, but pricing may suffer as a result [32]. Refining Capacity and Valuations - Global refining capacity is set to rise, particularly in Asia, India, and the Middle East, while closures are expected in Europe and the U.S. [51]. - Current valuations in the refining sector are around historical averages, with FY26 estimates projected to be 70% higher year-over-year [53]. Renewable Energy Insights - Proposed changes to renewable fuel volume obligations by the EPA could lead to higher Renewable Identification Number (RIN) pricing, with a significant increase in biomass-based diesel requirements [59]. Conclusion - The report indicates a cautious optimism in the energy sector, with investment opportunities in upstream oil and gas, particularly in regions like Brazil and the Middle East, while also highlighting potential risks associated with pricing and oversupply in the LNG market [4][5][25][31].