中国若限制对日本稀土出口，经济冲击几何？-Estimating the economic hit from possible China restrictions on rare earth exports to Japan

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - Industry: Rare Earth Elements and Related Sectors in Japan - Company: Nomura Research Institute Core Insights and Arguments - Japan's Economic Vulnerability: The potential for China to restrict rare earth exports to Japan poses a significant risk to Japan's economy, particularly affecting five key industrial sectors: automotive, electronic components, wind power, medical devices, and aerospace [2][8][19] - Estimated Economic Impact: A three-month restriction on rare earth exports could lead to an economic loss of approximately ¥660 billion, equating to a 0.11% reduction in Japan's annual nominal and real GDP. If the restrictions were to last for a year, the estimated loss would rise to about ¥2.6 trillion, resulting in a 0.43% decrease in GDP [14][16] - Historical Context: The analysis draws parallels to a previous incident in 2010 when China restricted rare earth exports to Japan, which severely impacted Japan's economy. This historical context underscores the potential for similar outcomes if current tensions escalate [4][15] Sector-Specific Impacts - Automotive Industry: Heavily reliant on neodymium magnets for electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid vehicles, with nearly 100% of heavy rare earths sourced from China. Production suspensions have occurred due to shortages [9] - Electronic Components: Rare earths are critical for smartphones and semiconductor manufacturing, with significant challenges in finding substitutes [10] - Wind Power: High-performance magnets in wind turbines are dependent on rare earths, and while alternatives exist, they are less efficient and more costly [11] - Medical Devices: Rare earth elements are essential for MRI machines, with concerns about performance if substitutes are used [12] - Aerospace: Alloys and magnets containing rare earths are crucial for aircraft engines and defense equipment, making supply disruptions particularly risky [13] Japan's Dependence on China - Current Dependence: Japan's reliance on China for rare earths has decreased from 90% during the 2010 incident to about 60% today. However, this level of dependence remains high, especially for critical materials like dysprosium and terbium [6] - Future Plans: Japan is exploring rare earth deposits around Minamitori Island, with plans for trial extraction in 2026 and commercialization targeted for 2028. However, technological and cost challenges remain significant [7] Additional Economic Considerations - Combined Economic Impact: If both travel restrictions and rare earth export limitations were to occur simultaneously, the estimated hit to Japan's GDP could reach ¥2.45 trillion, or a 0.40% reduction. A year-long restriction could escalate this impact to ¥4.43 trillion, lowering GDP by 0.73% [19][20] - Broader Economic Context: Japan's economy is already facing challenges from external factors such as tariffs and declining real wages, making it particularly vulnerable to further deterioration in Japan-China relations [21] Important but Overlooked Content - Strategic Initiatives: Japan has undertaken several initiatives to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths, including diversifying suppliers, developing alternative technologies, building strategic stockpiles, and enhancing recycling efforts [5] - Market Size and Loss Estimates: The automotive sector has a market size of ¥20 trillion, with an estimated loss of ¥0.45 trillion from a three-month restriction. Other sectors also show significant potential losses, highlighting the widespread impact of rare earth supply disruptions [17][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications of the conference call regarding Japan's economic landscape in relation to rare earth exports from China.