中国 - 11 月经济活动数据普遍不及市场预期-China_ November activity data broadly missed market expectations

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic activity data from China for November, highlighting significant misses in market expectations across various sectors, particularly retail sales and industrial production [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Industrial Production (IP) - IP growth decreased to 4.8% year-on-year in November from 4.9% in October, falling short of forecasts (GS: 5.1%, Bloomberg consensus: 5.0%) [2][8]. - Sequentially, IP showed a 0.5% month-on-month increase after seasonal adjustment, contrasting with a -0.4% decline in October [8]. - The slowdown in IP was primarily driven by reduced output in the automobile and utilities sectors, which outweighed gains in special equipment and pharmaceuticals [8]. 2. Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) - FAI contracted by -2.6% year-to-date year-on-year in November, worsening from -1.7% in October [3][9]. - On a single-month basis, FAI fell by -10.7% year-on-year in November, slightly improving from -11.4% in October [9]. - The decline in FAI is attributed to statistical corrections by the NBS and ongoing issues in the property sector [9]. 3. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth significantly slowed to 1.3% year-on-year in November, down from 2.9% in October, missing expectations (GS: 2.3%, consensus: 2.9%) [6][11]. - The decline was broad-based, with notable drops in auto sales (-8.3%) and home appliances (-19.4%) [11]. - The earlier start of the "Double 11" Online Shopping Festival distorted demand, pulling some sales from November into October [11]. 4. Services Industry Output - The Services Industry Output Index growth moderated to 4.2% year-on-year in November from 4.6% in October, indicating a slowdown in the services sector [12]. 5. Property Market - The property market continued to show weakness, with new home starts and completions contracting by -27.6% and -25.3% year-on-year, respectively [13]. - Property sales volume fell by -17.0% and value by -24.6% in November, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [13]. 6. Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, with the youth unemployment rate for ages 16-24 declining slightly to 17.3% [14]. 7. GDP Growth Forecast - Incorporating October-November data, there is a small downside risk to the Q4 real GDP growth forecast of 4.5% year-on-year, with a sequential improvement in December activity needed to achieve a 5% full-year growth [15]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent slump in economic indicators should not be over-interpreted, as statistical corrections have played a significant role alongside fundamental economic challenges [1][9]. - The data reflects broader economic trends in China, including the impact of "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged downturn in the property market, which are critical for investors to consider [1][9].