日本科技_半导体资本设备_上调晶圆厂设备展望；预计投资持续强劲（尤其是 DRAM 领域）；重申东京电子 “买入” 评级-Japan Technology_ Semiconductor Capital Equipment_ WFE outlook raised; expecting continued robust investment, especially in DRAM; reiterate Buy on TEL

Summary of Conference Call Notes on Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Industry Overview - The semiconductor capital equipment industry is experiencing a robust investment outlook, particularly in the DRAM segment, driven by increasing demand for AI semiconductors and various DRAM types including HBM, LPDDR, and GDDR [1][2] - The forecast for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) demand has been raised by 3-4% for CY25-27, with expected growth rates of +11% year-over-year (yoy) to $113 billion in CY25, $124 billion in CY26, and $132 billion in CY27 [1][8] Key Insights - WFE Demand Growth: The demand for WFE, excluding China, is projected to surpass the CY22 peak in CY26-27, indicating a favorable business environment for front-end companies [1][9] - DRAM Investment: Major DRAM manufacturers are expected to expand production capacity, with $6 billion of the $11 billion increase in the CY26 forecast attributed to DRAM investments [1][8] - NAND and Foundry Investments: While NAND demand continues to exceed supply, investment in NAND is not uniform across manufacturers, as major players prioritize DRAM investments. Logic/foundry investments are expected to grow, particularly in advanced processes [2][9] Company-Specific Insights - Tokyo Electron (TEL): The company has been reiterated as a "Buy" with raised earnings estimates and target prices, expected to grow faster than the WFE market due to DRAM investment expansion and new product offerings. The new target price is set at ¥38,000, up from ¥36,000 [3][11] - Kokusai Electric: Rated as "Neutral," with expectations of weaker earnings momentum due to a decline in new customer ratios in China and low memory exposure [7][12] - SCREEN Holdings: Rated as "Sell," anticipated to have the weakest earnings momentum among covered companies due to low memory exposure and declining new customer ratios in China [7][12] - Lasertec: Rated as "Neutral," expected to see increased orders mainly for MATRICS, but limited upside in current valuation [7][12] Financial Projections - WFE Market Forecasts: - Total WFE for CY25 is projected at $113 billion, with a yoy growth of +11% - For CY26, the forecast is $124 billion, also +11% yoy - For CY27, the forecast is $132 billion, with a slower growth of +7% yoy [8][9] - Memory Segment Growth: - DRAM is expected to grow from $32 billion in CY25 to $38 billion in CY26, maintaining a +20% yoy growth rate [8][9] - NAND is projected to grow from $10 billion in CY25 to $13 billion in CY26, with a +30% yoy growth rate [8][9] Risks and Considerations - Investment appetite among key customers in NAND is mixed, which may affect overall demand and investment strategies [2][7] - Potential risks include changes in investment at key customers, export controls, and competitive landscape shifts [15][12] Conclusion The semiconductor capital equipment industry is poised for significant growth, particularly in the DRAM segment, with companies like Tokyo Electron expected to outperform the market. However, challenges remain in the NAND sector and overall investment dynamics, necessitating careful monitoring of market trends and company-specific developments.