SIASUN(SZ:300024)2025-12-16 03:30Horizon Robotics Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company: Horizon Robotics - Ticker: 9660.HK - Industry: Autonomous Driving Chips and Solutions Key Takeaways Shipment Projections - 2026 Estimated Shipment: Expected to be around 5.5 million units, representing over 30% year-over-year growth [1][2] - Breakdown of Shipments: - Low-end ADAS chips: <2 million units - Mid-end ADAS chips: 3 million+ units (with BYD and Geely each contributing 1 million units) [1][2] - High-end HSD solutions: 300-400k units [1][2] Product Launches - HSD (High-end Solution): - Launching single J6M solution in 2026, targeting car models priced at Rmb100k [1] - Expected shipment of 300-400k units for HSD, with over half from the J6P solution [1][9] Financial Performance - 2025 Estimated Shipment Guidance: Maintained at 4 million units [3] - Earnings Summary: - 2023A: Net Profit: -Rmb1,635 million, Diluted EPS: -0.606 - 2024A: Net Profit: -Rmb1,681 million, Diluted EPS: -0.367 - 2025E: Net Profit: -Rmb3,002 million, Diluted EPS: -0.227 - 2026E: Net Profit: -Rmb482 million, Diluted EPS: -0.037 - 2027E: Net Profit: Rmb2,231 million, Diluted EPS: 0.169 [5] Pricing and Cost Structure - HSD ASP Breakdown: - HSD (J6P): Total ASP of US$700 (chip: US$500, software: US$200) - HSD (dual J6M): Total ASP of US$400 (chips: US$200, software: US$200) [5] - HSD (single J6M): Pricing under negotiation [5] Market Position and Strategy - Investment Rating: Rated as Buy / High Risk due to leading position in domestic ADAS chip supply and strong partnerships [19] - Market Cap: Approximately HK$132,013 million (US$16,960 million) [6] Risks and Challenges - High Risk Factors: - Limited operating history - Uncertain R&D outcomes - Competition and regulatory risks - Supply chain dependency - Customer concentration risks - Geopolitical and compliance risks - Market adoption uncertainty [21] Future Outlook - R&D Outlook: Expected YoY growth rate of R&D expenses to be lower than revenue growth in 2026E [14] - Robotaxi Development: Requires at least 5 million units of HSD ownership for data training, expected to take around 3 years to achieve [12] Collaboration and Expansion - Partnerships: Collaboration with KargoBot for ADAS software, with limited expectations for truck business volume due to low sales in China [15] - Robotics Business: Leveraging automotive chip expertise to enter the robotics chip market, with cautious optimism for large-scale commercialization in the next 5 years [16] Conclusion Horizon Robotics is positioned for significant growth in the autonomous driving sector, with ambitious shipment targets and product launches planned for 2026. However, the company faces substantial risks that could impact its performance and market adoption.