2025-12-16 03:30Jiangxi Copper Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company Name: Jiangxi Copper - Ticker: 0358.HK / 600362.SS - Industry: Copper production, mining, smelting, refining, and processing - Key Products: Copper cathode, copper wire, gold, silver, sulfuric acid, pyrite concentrate - Market Capitalization: HK$120 billion / Rmb108.78 billion as of 15th Dec 2025 - Control: Ultimate controlling shareholder is Jiangxi Provincial SASAC [27][31] Core Insights - Earnings Forecast Revision: - 2025E net profit forecast revised to Rmb8.2 billion (+8% YoY) - 2026E net profit forecast revised to Rmb11.8 billion (+38% YoY) - 2027E net profit forecast revised to Rmb11.5 billion (+11% YoY) - These revisions are driven by higher forecasts for copper, gold, and sulfuric acid prices [2][7] - Target Price Update: - H-share target price revised to HK$39.8 (previously HK$27.9) - A-share target price revised to Rmb47.9 (previously Rmb33.8) - New target prices imply 2026E P/Es of 10.8x for H-shares and 14.1x for A-shares, compared to historical averages of 13.8x and 23.6x respectively [3][29] - Sensitivity Analysis: - A 5% increase in copper price (US$12,750/t) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 4% - A 5% increase in gold price (US$3,925/oz) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 1% - A 5% increase in sulfuric acid price (Rmb700/t) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 2% [1][8] Financial Metrics - Key Operating Metrics: - Mined copper volume remains stable at 200kt for 2025-2027 - LME copper price forecast for 2026E increased to US$12,750/t (+28% from previous forecast) - Gross profit for 2026E expected to reach Rmb21.89 billion (+43% YoY) [7][10] - Profit Margins: - Net profit margin for 2026E projected at 1.6% - EBITDA margin for 2026E projected at 2.5% [7] Investment Strategy - Rating: Jiangxi Copper H-shares and A-shares rated as Buy - Rationale: Despite lower gross profit from smelting due to lower TC/RC prices, higher gold and sulfuric acid prices are expected to offset this impact. Long-term bullish outlook on copper prices remains intact [28][32] Risks - Downside Risks: - Potential slowdown in China's grid investment - Weaker-than-expected property demand affecting copper prices - Rising mining or smelting costs [30][35] Upcoming Events - Conference Call: Scheduled for 10am on 6th Jan 2026, registration link available (Mandarin only) [1][3]