大宗商品价格展望：2026 年第一季度有望上行-metal&ROCK -The Price Deck

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the metals industry, particularly in Europe, with a positive outlook for various metals in 2026, driven by rate cuts and demand for real assets [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Positive Outlook for Metals: The overall outlook for metals remains strong, supported by rate cuts, potential USD weakness, and increasing investor demand for real assets. New demand sources, such as energy storage systems (ESS) batteries and data centers, are expected to contribute to copper demand growth by approximately 0.6 percentage points in 2026 [2][3]. - Top Picks: Uranium and lithium are highlighted as top picks due to rising contracting activity and tighter market conditions, respectively. Conversely, iron ore and zinc are viewed with more caution [1][3]. - Supply Challenges: Significant supply challenges are noted, including disruptions in copper mines and competition for electricity among aluminum smelters and data centers [2][3]. - China's Demand: China's metals demand is bolstered by its manufacturing and export model, which is expected to continue. The US energy secretary's discussions on strategic uranium stockpiling also support this outlook [2][3]. Price Forecasts - Uranium: Expected to benefit from rising contracting activity and disappointing supply growth, leading to price upside [3][10]. - Lithium: Anticipated to enter a tighter market in 2026 due to accelerated ESS demand [3][10]. - Aluminum: Expected to catch up with copper prices as supply constraints from China and other regions persist [3][10]. - Copper: Projected to rise further due to tight supply and US stockpiling, although China demand remains a concern [3][10]. - Gold: Expected to see smaller gains in 2026 as central bank and ETF buying slows, but rate cuts may support prices [3][10]. - Iron Ore: Forecasted to tip into surplus as supply growth outpaces steel demand, although high-cost mines in China may set a price floor [3][10]. - Zinc: LME tightness is expected to fade as mine supply growth continues [3][10]. Key Risks - Demand Destruction Risks: With significant price increases in the BCOM Precious Metals Index (up 66%) and Industrial Metals (up 13%), there are concerns about potential demand destruction and disconnection from cost curves [4]. - Global Growth Slowdown: A sustained global growth slowdown could negatively impact prices, alongside energy price weakness and elevated by-product credits that may drag down cost curves [4]. Additional Insights - Investor Behavior: New investments in precious metals are noted, including Tether's gold purchases and India's pension regulator's approval for gold and silver ETF allocations [2]. - Market Dynamics: The report emphasizes the importance of resource security and strategic stockpiling, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and local opposition to mining projects [28]. Conclusion - The metals industry outlook for 2026 is characterized by a positive skew, driven by various macroeconomic factors and emerging demand sources. However, potential risks related to demand destruction and global economic conditions warrant close monitoring.