中国房地产月度追踪 - 又一个月的下滑，12 月或延续颓势-China Property Monthly Tracker_ Another month of slippage, and likely carry forward in Dec

Summary of China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese property market, highlighting significant declines in various metrics such as average selling prices (ASP), primary sales, new starts, and completions in November 2025 compared to previous years. Key Market Indicators - Primary Sales: - Volume declined by 17% year-over-year (yoy) - Value declined by 25% yoy, which was largely in line with expectations [2][11] - New Starts: - Fell sharply by 28% yoy, marking the second consecutive month of decline [11] - Completions: - Declined by 25% yoy, undershooting estimates [11] - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI): - Reached its lowest level since 2012, declining by 30% yoy [2][11] - Secondary Transaction Volumes: - Decreased by 24% yoy [2][11] Price Trends - Average Selling Prices (ASP): - Nationwide ASP declined by 9.5% yoy in November [21] - Primary market ASP showed a slight decline of 0.4% month-over-month (mom), while secondary market ASP declined by 0.7% mom [11][28] Developer Activity - Developers' land acquisition spending moderated to 21% of contract sales in November, with an average project-level gross profit margin (GPM) of 25% [12][71] - The land market showed signs of weakness, with land sales volume and value declining by 27% and 37% yoy, respectively [35] Future Expectations - For December 2025, expectations include: - Continued price weakness and a low-teens to low-twenties % yoy decline in sales volume and value [3][13] - A potential positive yoy for completions, but a steeper decline in new starts [3][13] - Secondary transaction volumes expected to decline by high-twenties % yoy [3][13] Policy and Market Sentiment - Key areas to watch include: - Potential large-scale mortgage interest subsidies and commercial mortgage rate cuts [4][8] - Removal of housing purchase restrictions in core districts of Tier-1 cities [4][8] - Signs of rent stabilization in high-tier cities [4][8] - The overall demand score for the property market was 37 out of 100, indicating a challenging environment for developers and homebuyers [53][55] Developer Liquidity - Developers are facing a funding gap estimated at Rmb3.2 trillion for 2025, with liquidity remaining tight [54][57] - New funding sources for developers increased by 21% mom and 29% yoy in November, indicating some recovery in financing [63] Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing significant challenges, with declining sales, prices, and construction activity. Developers are under pressure due to liquidity issues and a challenging market environment. Future policy measures and market sentiment will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the market moving forward.