固收- 不可忽视供给压力本身

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of current fiscal policy has shifted towards debt resolution rather than traditional demand stimulation, leading to direct impacts on bond supply and yield pricing. A slight change in bond issuance volume has limited effects on overall yield [1][4] - The anticipated government bond issuance for 2026 is expected to exceed 26 trillion, with a significant portion being long-term bonds. The capacity of banks to absorb this supply and the potential market impact remain to be observed [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Fiscal Policy Impact: The current fiscal policy aims primarily at debt resolution, which directly influences yield pricing. Even with a deficit rate above or below 4%, the resulting bond issuance variations of 1,000 to 3,000 billion will not drastically alter overall yields [4] - Monetary Policy Role: Recent interest rate cuts are primarily aimed at boosting market confidence rather than immediate market benefits. A potential rate cut is expected in Q1 2026, but it should not be interpreted as a signal for significant yield declines [5] - Market Behavior of Large Banks: The actions of large banks in the latter half of December are crucial. Continued selling of old bonds, especially long-term ones, indicates a need for better interest rate risk control. Conversely, buying behavior would suggest manageable risk levels [6][9] - Market Volatility and Trading Strategy: There is a defined volatility range in the market, and exceeding this range may indicate overvaluation, presenting a good exit point. Investors should adjust strategies based on market sentiment and stabilization forces [8][16] Additional Important Insights - December Fiscal Spending: The last two weeks of December are typically characterized by concentrated fiscal spending, with the tightest funding conditions usually occurring around mid-December. Increased fiscal spending towards the end of the month may alleviate some pressure [10][11] - Interest Rate Spread: The current spread between 10-year and 30-year government bonds is 40 basis points, with a low probability of significant deviation in the short term. The acceptable fluctuation range for the 10-year bond is 1.8%-1.85%, corresponding to 2.18%-2.27% for the 30-year bond [3][13] - Central Bank Actions: Recent central bank interventions have not significantly altered market rates, with the six-month marginal rate expected to remain stable. The current deposit certificate yield is projected to hold at around 1.65% [14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and expectations within the bond market and fiscal policy landscape.