Asia Fund Manager Survey-Easing up

Summary of Asia Fund Manager Survey Industry Overview - Industry: Asia Pacific Financial Markets - Survey Period: December 5 - December 11, 2025 - Participants: 238 fund managers with a total of $550 billion in assets under management (AUM) [11] Key Insights Economic Growth Expectations - Global growth expectations reached a four-year high, while Asia Pacific ex-Japan economic prospects are near one-year highs [1][14] - Japan's growth outlook is at a survey peak, indicating strong investor confidence [1] Market Sentiment - Investors maintain a positive market bias but have moderated return expectations due to high valuations [2] - Japan is the most favored market, consistently topping preference rankings since October 2023 [3][50] - China’s growth momentum has stalled, with investors awaiting signs of stimulative policy before increasing exposure [4][28] Sector Preferences - In Japan, banks and semiconductors are favored sectors, driven by rising long-term rates and AI themes [3][48] - In Asia Pacific ex-Japan, tech hardware, semiconductors, and software are the most preferred sectors, while real estate and energy are out of favor [53][54] Investment Themes - Popular investment themes in China include AI, semiconductors, and internet sectors, while green economy and travel have lost favor [55][56] - Korea's 'Corporate Value-Up Program' has garnered positive sentiment post-election [57] Corporate Profit Expectations - A net 41% of fund managers expect stronger corporate profits in the Asia Pacific ex-Japan region, the highest since October 2024 [20][27] - Consensus earnings estimates are not considered high, indicating potential for future upgrades [27] Valuation Concerns - There is a perception that Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities are moderately overvalued due to a significant rally year-to-date [23][25] - Investors are cautious about potential returns given the ~50% rally since April lows [3] China’s Economic Outlook - The outlook for China has stabilized, with a net 3% of investors expecting a stronger economy, a shift from 29% expecting a weaker economy last month [28] - Long-term prospects for China are improving, nearing a three-year high, with 45% of investors believing the equity market is in a structural de-rating process [30][31] Monetary Policy Expectations - There are calls for easing monetary policy in China as consumer and business confidence begins to improve [32][34] - 83% of fund managers expect easier monetary policy in China over the next 12 months [34] Additional Insights - Household risk appetite in China is waning, with a shift towards savings over investments, leading to underweight allocations [4][36] - Japan's economic outlook is overwhelmingly positive, with virtually no investors expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 months [38][39] - Key themes for Japan equities include earnings growth, corporate governance reforms, and Bank of Japan policy normalization [44][45] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the Asia Fund Manager Survey, highlighting the current sentiment and expectations within the Asia Pacific financial markets.