中国餐饮_FMD 专家会议要点：单位经济压力；补贴退坡；依托空白市场 + 利好加盟政策扩张门店-China Restaurants_ FMD expert call takeaways_ UE pressure; Subsidy retreat; Store expansion on white-spacefavorable franchise policy

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Freshly Made Drink (FMD) Market Industry Overview - The conference focused on the freshly made drink (FMD) market in China, particularly milk tea shops in Zhejiang and Shanghai provinces [1][2]. Core Insights 1. Subsidy Retreat and UE Pressure - The expert anticipates a retreat in subsidies over the mid to long term, with ongoing pressure on unit economics (UE) due to increased delivery mix and single-cup orders. The net GMV to gross GMV ratio has decreased to approximately 60-65% from 70-75% prior to the subsidy campaign [1][10]. 2. Store Expansion Opportunities - Emerging small brands face challenges in scaling to over 10,000 stores amid intense competition. However, niche brands with strong momentum may achieve profitability within 6-8 months. Established brands may find further penetration in saturated regions like Zhejiang difficult, but opportunities exist for brands like Guming in Northern China and Shanghai, Mixue due to its value-for-money position, and Auntea Jenny with reduced capital expenditure requirements [1][12]. 3. Chagee's Adjustments - Chagee's franchisees may see improved profitability if new franchise policies are implemented. The expert noted buybacks of underperforming stores at low prices, which some franchisees have refused. High-profile marketing campaigns have been more effective than new product launches in driving short-term sales [1][13]. 4. Sales Performance and Delivery Mix - Sales per store for brands involved in subsidy campaigns have declined by 20-30% in December compared to August. The delivery mix has increased from 60-70% to 75-85%, while the dine-in mix has not recovered significantly. Single-cup orders have risen to 50-60% of total orders, increasing operational workload [12][10]. 5. Profitability Challenges - Store profitability is under pressure, with Chapanda's monthly profit dropping from approximately RMB 30,000-80,000 to around RMB 30,000 during peak seasons or breakeven in off-seasons. Regional small brands have experienced even greater declines [12][10]. 6. Competitive Landscape - The expert highlighted that established brands face limited opportunities for further penetration in saturated markets. However, brands like Mixue and Guming are recognized as supply-chain leaders with strong quality control and high in-house production ratios [12][11]. Additional Insights - Coffee Contribution - Coffee contributes about 15% to total sales in FMD stores, with pricing power challenged by competition from specialist chains. Its primary benefit is smoothing intraday sales rather than serving as a significant profit driver [14]. - Price Target Risks for Guming and Mixue - Guming Holdings Ltd. has a 12-month target price of HK$32.0, with risks including store network management and intensified competition. Mixue Group has a target price of HK$579, with similar risks [15][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the FMD market in China.