美国经济：中期选举前的关税与财政政策-US Economics Analyst_ Tariffs and Fiscal Policy Ahead of the Midterms

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic landscape, particularly in relation to tariffs and fiscal policy ahead of the midterm elections in 2026 [2][5][30]. Core Insights and Arguments - Cost of Living Concerns: The cost of living remains the top issue for voters, with 29% citing it as their primary concern, an increase from 25% prior to the 2024 presidential election [2][5]. - Political Landscape: Democrats are perceived to have an advantage in the House for the upcoming midterms, while Republicans maintain a safer majority in the Senate [5][30]. - Tariff Policy: - The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could lead to lower tariff rates [2][7][11]. - A decline in the effective tariff rate is anticipated, with projections indicating a reduction of around 2 percentage points (pp) by the end of 2026 [2][18]. - The administration may seek to replace IEEPA tariffs with tariffs under different authorities, potentially capping rates at 15% [2][12]. - Fiscal Policy: - A second fiscal package is considered possible but unlikely due to high hurdles in Congress [30][34]. - Proposed measures include extending health insurance subsidies and additional defense spending, but consensus among Republicans is lacking [30][34][36]. - The potential for a $2000/person tariff rebate has not gained traction due to fiscal concerns and opposition to the tariffs [30][35]. Additional Important Content - Housing Policy: Executive actions on housing are likely, focusing on government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with potential adjustments in loan pricing and the introduction of a 50-year mortgage product [3][40]. - USMCA Review: The review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026 could lead to lower tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, particularly on products subject to sectoral tariffs [28][30]. - US-China Relations: The economic relationship with China is expected to stabilize, with a recent agreement to delay export controls and reduce tariffs from 20% to 10% [29][30]. - Sectoral Tariffs: Investigations into sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may not lead to immediate tariff impositions, as the administration is likely to proceed cautiously [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding U.S. economic policies, particularly in the context of tariffs and fiscal measures leading up to the midterm elections.