中国基础材料监测-大宗商品显现触底迹象，金属高价暂未造成破坏性影响-China Basic Materials Monitor_ December 2025_ signs of bottoming in bulk, while high metal prices not destructive

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - December 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Basic Materials industry, highlighting trends in demand and pricing for various commodities including steel, copper, aluminum, cement, and coal. Key Points Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks are mostly in line with past seasonal trends as of mid-December, with specific sectors like appliances, solar, construction, and machinery showing weaker demand [1] - Demand for copper and paper packaging has weakened, while other commodities remain on track [1] - Current Chinese demand is reported to be 3-10% lower year-over-year for cement and construction steel, and 2-8% lower for flat steel, copper, and aluminum [1] Pricing and Margins - Despite rising prices for copper and aluminum, the demand response has not been destructive to orderbooks, indicating a cautious procurement pace among end users [1] - There are signs of marginal improvement in steel margins, reflected in higher unit profits, although overall supply work on steel remains limited [1] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for steel, copper, and lithium, while coal prices have softened, and cement and aluminum prices have remained stable [1] Supply Dynamics - In bulk commodities, general demand has been weak, but policy measures on supply for cement and coal remain intact, including preparations for capacity cuts related to disqualified clinker capacity, which accounts for 4-10% of total capacity in major producers [1] - Consistent coal supply discipline is maintained through control of excess production and safety inspections [1] Month-over-Month Changes - A proprietary survey indicates that the forward orderbook trend has softened month-over-month, with 11% of respondents in downstream sectors and 14% in basic materials reporting a month-over-month pickup in December [2] Additional Insights - The report includes various downstream demand snapshots across sectors such as infrastructure, property, traditional manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and power, transport, and exports [8] - The report also discusses the implications of commodity price changes and potential risks associated with investment decisions in the basic materials sector [9] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is experiencing signs of bottoming out in bulk commodities, with high metal prices not significantly damaging demand. However, the overall demand remains subdued, and careful monitoring of supply and pricing dynamics is essential for stakeholders in the sector.