固收：地方政府“加杠杆”最新动向及边际变化

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the fiscal policy and economic strategies of local governments in China for 2026, emphasizing the need for increased investment and control of hidden debts [1][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - Fiscal Policy: China will continue to implement an active fiscal policy in 2026, maintaining a narrow fiscal deficit rate of 4% to ensure the stability of wages, operations, and livelihood expenditures [1][4]. - Investment in Infrastructure: The central budget for 2026 is expected to exceed 735 billion yuan, with increased investment in major safety projects and other key areas, optimizing the management of special bonds [1][7]. - Focus on Domestic Demand: Expanding domestic demand is identified as the core guiding principle for 2026, with plans for resident income increase and consumption stimulation actions to be implemented in the first quarter [1][6]. - Role of Financial Tools: Central budget investment funds, special bonds, and new policy financial tools will play a crucial role in leveraging local government project capital, driving fixed asset investment recovery across various sectors, including real estate and manufacturing [1][8]. - Control of Hidden Debt: Local governments are urged to actively control the increase of hidden debts and regulate financing platform operations to mitigate fiscal risks [1][11]. Additional Important Content - Investment Strategy: The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for local governments to avoid ineffective investments and focus on projects with tangible returns, addressing the decline in fixed asset investment [3][12]. - Sector-Specific Development: Provinces are encouraged to develop key industrial chains to promote regional economic growth while managing new hidden debts [1][9]. - Technological and Infrastructure Investment: To counteract slowing investment and consumption growth, there will be increased investment in technology innovation, infrastructure improvements, and public welfare sectors such as childcare and healthcare [2][15]. - Artificial Intelligence Development: Various provinces are focusing on artificial intelligence in their "14th Five-Year Plan," with distinct roles based on regional strengths, promoting coordinated development across the country [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction for local governments and the anticipated economic landscape for 2026.