日本行业展望_2026 新年特刊（2025 年 12 月）- 即便步入马年，日本股市获利了结时机仍未到来

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Japanese equity market, particularly in the context of the 2026 outlook and the performance of various sectors within Japan [3][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Profit Growth Expectations: Stronger prospects for double-digit profit growth in FY26 are anticipated, driven by solid H1 results, particularly in B2B sectors. Companies are positioned to improve profitability through price increases due to labor shortages [3][6]. 2. Market Confidence: Market confidence in achieving double-digit profit growth in FY26 is expected to increase over time, supported by tax breaks for capital expenditures and increased government spending on infrastructure [3][6]. 3. Sector Performance: - Construction, heavy machinery, IT & software, and industrial electronics sectors are expected to benefit from productivity improvements and price hikes [6]. - B2C businesses are likely to recover as real wages increase, while headwinds remain for businesses in China and those serving inbound visitors to Japan [6][3]. 4. Macroeconomic Conditions: Nominal economic growth (G) is projected to exceed the nominal 10-year JGB yield (R), which historically supports equity performance over bonds [4][7]. 5. Corporate Governance Revisions: Revisions to the Corporate Governance Code in 2026 will require companies to demonstrate effective use of cash and deposits, potentially impacting investment strategies [4][7]. 6. Earnings Forecasts: The TOPIX EPS growth forecasts were raised from +0.7% to +3.2% for FY25 and from +13.8% to +14.3% for FY26, reflecting improved economic conditions and currency assumptions [8][21]. 7. Share Buybacks: Nonfinancial corporations are expected to be the largest net purchasers of Japanese equities in 2026, driven by share buybacks and tender offers [7][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. Sector Preferences: Preferred sectors include electric appliances, machinery, banks, real estate, and trading companies, while sectors to avoid include steel, retail trade, and those reliant on inbound tourism [8][49]. 2. Valuation Trends: The TOPIX is currently trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 17.0x, but is expected to appear less overvalued as forecasts for FY26 suggest a P/E of 15.9x [39][40]. 3. Investment Strategy: Selective investment is emphasized, as not all companies will effectively implement measures to improve ROE. The outlook includes a potential upside scenario for the TOPIX at 3,900 and a downside scenario at 3,200 by the end of 2026 [48][49]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the optimistic outlook for Japanese equities, sector-specific insights, and macroeconomic conditions that are expected to influence market performance in 2026.