电信与网络设备 -2026 展望：网络效应-Telecom & Networking Equipment-2026 Outlook Network Effect

Summary of Telecom & Networking Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Telecom & Networking Equipment industry in North America with a specific emphasis on the AI trade and optical componentry market [1][3][4]. Key Points 1. Performance Metrics - Networking returns in 2025 were concentrated in AI and optical trades, with a 100% return YTD for optical [1]. - The overall networking universe returned approximately 55% YTD, outperforming NASDAQ by about 35% [3]. - AI names saw a 110% increase in returns, building on an 85% return from the previous year [3]. 2. AI Trade and Optical Market - The AI trade has broadened beyond semiconductor names, positively impacting infrastructure, particularly in optical [3]. - Optical components led the AI basket performance with a 155% increase and 40% estimate revisions [3]. - The expectation is that the AI trade will continue, especially in optical, through the first half of 2026, but selectivity will be necessary for full-year returns [4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Upgrades were made for MSI to Overweight (OW), with continued OW ratings for AXON, CSCO, and ANET [1][4]. - Companies expected to attract excess returns from the AI trade include GLW, CIEN, LITE, and COHR [4]. - Core networking names like CSCO and ANET are highlighted as attractive opportunities due to Ethernet's growing market share [5][9]. 4. Caution on Pricing and Market Dynamics - There is caution regarding the sustainability of pricing in the optical market due to increased competition and capacity investments [4]. - If capital expenditure (capex) data points continue to be revised positively, expectations for optical names may hold throughout the year [4]. 5. Public Safety Sector - The public safety sector, particularly companies like AXON and MSI, is viewed as well-positioned for growth due to high public safety budgets and the impact of OBBBA funding [10][60]. - Despite recent underperformance, there is optimism for recovery in public safety names as demand conditions improve [10][11]. 6. Company-Specific Insights - Cisco (CSCO) is expected to benefit from a multi-year campus upgrade cycle and increased AI contributions, with a price target raised to $91 [34][37]. - AXON is projected to maintain a durable growth opportunity with a price target of $713, reflecting a strong market position in public safety [50][56]. - MSI was upgraded to OW with a price target of $436, citing reasonable valuation levels and growth drivers in public safety [60][71]. - Ciena (CIEN) is experiencing strong demand but is currently trading at a premium, leading to a cautious outlook despite positive near-term demand [72][74]. 7. Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential tariff impacts, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the timing of public safety spending [56][71]. - The optical component market faces challenges from increased competition and supply chain issues, which could affect pricing and margins [95][96]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted a robust outlook for the Telecom & Networking Equipment industry, driven by AI and optical components, while also emphasizing the need for selectivity in investments due to market dynamics and pricing pressures. The public safety sector remains a focal point for growth, with several companies positioned to capitalize on favorable funding and demand conditions.