网络安全 2026 展望：平台还有上涨空间吗？-Cybersecurity-2026 Outlook Any More Room on the Platform

Summary of Cybersecurity Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the cybersecurity industry in North America, particularly the performance and outlook for 2026. - Platforms have been identified as the primary source of excess returns in 2025, with a notable performance disparity between platform companies and other cybersecurity names. Key Points Performance Metrics - Platforms (e.g., Palo Alto Networks (PANW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Zscaler (ZS), CyberArk (CYBR)) saw an average return of ~30% in 2025, while other cybersecurity names were down ~12% [3][7]. - The overall cybersecurity market was largely flat, with platforms being viewed as multi-year compounders due to their growth potential [3][14]. Growth Expectations - Continued favor for platforms is expected, but M&A activities in the first half of 2026 may create volatility and present opportunities for other companies [4][31]. - Companies like Netskope (NTSK) and SailPoint (SAIL) are highlighted as potential outperformers with expected growth rates of 20%+ [3][9]. M&A Impact - The ongoing M&A activities, such as PANW's acquisition of CyberArk and ZS's acquisition of Red Canary, may create short-term noise around organic growth metrics [8][31]. - Despite the potential for dilution and integration challenges, these acquisitions are expected to enhance long-term growth prospects [8][31]. Valuation Insights - PANW is noted as a top pick due to its reasonable valuation at 25x EV/27e FCF, which is in line with large-cap software [7][31]. - Other companies like SAIL and NTSK are seen as undervalued with significant upside potential, trading at lower multiples compared to their growth prospects [9][35]. Market Dynamics - The cybersecurity market is characterized by a trend towards consolidation, with enterprises increasingly looking to reduce the number of disparate security tools [54]. - The shift towards platformization is expected to continue, driven by the need for integrated solutions that enhance security effectiveness [54]. Additional Insights Emerging Opportunities - The AI security segment is growing rapidly, with Zscaler's AI Security revenue expected to exceed $500 million by year-end, reflecting a 80%+ YoY growth [32]. - SailPoint is positioned to benefit from the transition to cloud and AI, with multiple avenues for growth including a $2 billion+ legacy replacement opportunity [35]. Cautionary Notes - Companies like Fortinet (FTNT) are viewed with caution due to potential downward revisions in growth expectations, particularly related to firewall refresh cycles [38][45]. - Qualys (QLYS) faces longer-term growth concerns despite recent performance, with a need for clearer visibility into future growth drivers [46]. Conclusion - The cybersecurity industry is poised for continued growth, particularly among platform companies, despite potential short-term challenges from M&A activities. - Investors are encouraged to consider both established platforms and emerging players with strong growth narratives as they navigate the evolving landscape of cybersecurity.