中国银行 2026 展望：重新评估房地产对银行的影响-China Banks_ 2026 Outlook_ Re-evaluating property impact on banks

19 December 2025 | 12:01AM HKT Equity Research CHINA BANKS 2026 Outlook: Re-evaluating property impact on banks We re-evaluate China Banks' exposure to property, both mortgage and non-mortgage, in light of our China Property team's updated forecast of a 15% property price decline over two years, alongside their stress test of an incremental 30% price decline. We incorporate the new forecast into our bank earnings forecasts. Our conclusions are: Assessed impact reflects healthy starting point for mortgage LT ...