中国观察：北京的新年规划 vs 市场：填补政策缺口-China Musings-Beijing's New Year Resolution vs. The Market's Closing the Policy Gap

The CEWC signals continuity, not a pivot: front-loaded public capex and ongoing goods trade-in support; housing and services get guardrails, not a big bang. We thus expect 2026 to be a year of less deflation, not reflation. After a year of narrative repair, the 2026 question is whether China can exit deflation and broaden the recovery. In this note, we map the gap between the CEWC's new year playbook and market expectations. Reality check vs. market hopes: What is likely in 2026: December 18, 2025 04:16 AM ...