中国股票策略：A 股情绪小幅回升，但或难持续-China Equity Strategy-A-Share Sentiment Marginally Up But May Not Sustain

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: A-Shares Market in China - Date: December 18, 2025 Core Insights and Arguments - Market Sentiment: A-share sentiment has increased marginally, with the weighted MSASI rising by 4 percentage points to 51% compared to the previous cutoff date of December 10, while the weighted MSASI 1MMA decreased by 3 percentage points to 52% [2][4] - Turnover Growth: Average daily turnover (ADT) for A-shares increased by 3% to RMB 1,854 billion, and equity futures turnover surged by 29% to RMB 451 billion. ChiNext turnover remained stable at RMB 502 billion, and margin transaction outstanding turnover was unchanged at RMB 2,480 billion [2] - Net Inflows: Southbound trading saw net inflows of US$0.8 billion from December 11-17, with year-to-date net inflows reaching US$170 billion and month-to-date inflows at US$1.4 billion [3] - External Risks: Global market volatility, particularly in the US equity market, poses a risk to sentiment, as evidenced by a ~3% drop in the S&P 500 over the past five trading days [4] - Domestic Economic Challenges: November retail sales growth was disappointing, slowing to a post-COVID low of 1.3% year-over-year. The China Economics team has revised its 4Q real GDP tracking down to ~4.3% year-over-year from 4.5% [5] Additional Important Insights - Fiscal Policy: A more decisive fiscal shift, especially measures to accelerate housing inventory absorption, is seen as a potential driver for improved market sentiment [17] - Technology Sector: Breakthroughs in China's technology sector could expand addressable markets and support a meaningful re-rating of the market [17] - Earnings Estimates: The breadth of consensus earnings estimate revisions remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [2] - Market Volatility: The expectation is for sentiment to remain range-bound amid higher market volatility, influenced by external uncertainties and challenging domestic macroeconomic conditions [4] Conclusion - The A-share market is experiencing marginal improvements in sentiment and turnover, but faces significant external and domestic challenges that could impact future performance. Key drivers for a more bullish outlook include fiscal policy shifts and advancements in technology.