中国交通运输 2026 展望：看好航空与油轮，转空集装箱-China Transportation_ 2026 Outlook_ Staying positive on Airlines and Tankers; Turning bearish on Containers

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: The analysis covers the transportation sector in China, specifically airlines, tankers, and container shipping, with a positive outlook on airlines and tankers while turning bearish on container shipping [1][8][10]. Airlines - Positive Outlook: Airlines are expected to benefit from higher international demand and supply constraints, leading to above-cycle Return on Equity (ROE) of 22% in 2027 [1]. - Earnings Forecast: The net demand forecast for airlines has been raised to 1.6% and 1.3% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, leading to an earnings upgrade for 2027. However, earnings for 2026 have been cut due to the negative impact from China-Japan flight cancellations [1][10]. - Key Picks: Air China-H and CEA-A are highlighted as key investment picks due to their price outperformance [1]. Tanker Shipping - Optimistic Projections: The crude tanker sector is expected to see further spot rate hikes amid a continuous upcycle in 2026, driven by faster crude stockpiling in China [2][10]. - Average TCE Rates: The average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) is forecasted to rise to $75, up from $56 in 2025 [1]. - Supply Dynamics: Supply growth is expected to be limited to 1% in 2026, with a lower effective supply growth forecast due to the exit of sanctioned capacity and increased storage use [2][10]. Container Shipping - Bearish Stance: The outlook for container shipping has turned bearish due to higher-than-expected new ship orders, which have driven the order book to 33% of current capacity. This is expected to lead to a deeper and longer downcycle [3][10]. - Demand Decline: There is a shrinking demand on the Transpacific route, exacerbated by declining US imports, which poses further downside risks [3]. Shipbuilding - Continued Upcycle: The shipbuilding sector is expected to benefit from limited supply growth, with a slight decline in new ship prices anticipated in the medium term due to a drop in new orders [22][10]. - Long-term Outlook: The order book coverage is expected to remain above 2.5x until 2032, indicating sustained demand for shipbuilding despite short-term fluctuations [22][24]. Ports and Exports - Resilient Exports: China's resilient export growth is projected at 5-6% per year, benefiting port operators and shipyards [11][10]. - Port Operators: Chinese port operators are expected to benefit from this resilient export growth, while shipyards may regain market share due to competitive pricing and cost advantages [11]. Key Investment Recommendations - Buy Recommendations: Air China, China Eastern Airlines, COSCO Shipping Energy, and COSCO Ports are recommended for purchase [9][10]. - Sell Recommendations: COSCO Shipping Holdings, Eastern Air Logistics, and Shanghai Airport are recommended for sale due to bearish outlooks [9][10]. Additional Insights - Market Dynamics: The analysis highlights the impact of supply constraints and lower oil prices on the transportation sector, with airlines and tankers positioned favorably compared to container shipping [8][10]. - Scenario Analysis: Potential scenarios regarding the reopening of the Red Sea and its impact on container shipping and tankers are discussed, indicating mixed outcomes for tankers and significant negative impacts for container shipping [12][10]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state and future outlook of the transportation sector in China, highlighting key investment opportunities and risks.