大宗商品市场持仓与资金流向- 黄金领涨的资金流入助力全球大宗商品市场未平仓合约稳定在 1.6 万亿美元-Commodity Market Positioning & Flows_ Gold-led inflows help keep global commodity market open interest steady at $1.6 trn

Summary of J.P. Morgan Commodity Market Positioning & Flows Industry Overview - The global commodity market open interest remained stable at approximately $1.62 trillion as of December 12, 2025, with inflows concentrated in precious metals offsetting price weakness in the energy sector [3][7][10]. Key Insights Commodity Market Open Interest - The estimated value of open interest across major global exchanges reached $1.62 trillion, with a weekly increase of $9.47 billion [3][7]. - The energy sector saw a decrease in open interest by $21.3 billion, down 3% week-over-week (WOW) to approximately $618 billion [3][7][22]. - Precious metals markets experienced a 9% increase in open interest, rising by $25 billion to $313 billion, driven primarily by inflows into gold [3][7][26]. - Base metals open interest increased by 1% WOW, totaling $233 billion, with significant inflows into copper and zinc [3][7][4]. Investor Positioning - Net investor length across energy, metals, and agriculture futures markets increased by an estimated 10% WOW to $172 billion [3][7]. - Precious metals net long positioning rose by 12% ($12 billion) WOW to $115 billion, while net short positioning in energy markets decreased to -$15 billion [3][7]. - Environmental markets saw a 7% increase in open interest, reaching $107 billion, supported by net inflows of $4.4 billion [5][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices rose towards $4,300/oz following a recent Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to strong inflows into the gold market [3][7]. - Silver prices reached a new record high, although concerns about Section 232 critical minerals and tariffs may lead to volatility [3][7]. - Price momentum generally decreased across most commodities, with exceptions for TTF Natural Gas, ICE EUA, and COMEX Gold, which saw increases [5][7]. Agricultural Markets - The estimated value of open interest in agricultural markets remained flat at $321 billion, with outflows totaling $1 billion, primarily from grains and oilseeds markets [5][7]. - Global wheat stocks increased due to record high production in Canada and Argentina, while US corn stocks declined amid robust exports [5][7]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the ongoing tug of war between Chinese exports and LME stock cancellations in the copper market, with a bullish outlook for copper prices into 2026 [4][7]. - The report also notes that the easing of policy rates by developed market central banks is nearing its end, which could impact commodity flows and investor positioning [3][7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Commodity Market Positioning & Flows report, providing insights into market trends, investor behavior, and price movements across various commodity sectors.