矿业策略-中国需求：2025 年 11 月显现放缓信号-Mining Strategy_ China Demand_ Signals slow in Nov-25

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: The conference call primarily discusses the mining and commodities sector, with a specific emphasis on iron ore, base metals, coal, and battery raw materials in the context of China's economic indicators and demand trends. Core Insights and Arguments Mining Strategy - China's Commodity Demand: In November 2025, commodity demand indicators in China showed significant weakness, with retail sales underperforming expectations, marking the weakest result in three years. The downturn in the property sector has worsened, leading to potential downside risks for demand expectations and prices. Economic decision-makers may delay policy changes until the 15th Five-Year Plan is finalized in March 2026 [1][6]. Iron Ore - Market Weakness: The property sector's weakness has accelerated, with construction starts and sales down 21% and 9% year-over-year, respectively. Crude steel output in October decreased by 11% year-over-year. Iron ore port inventories increased by 4% month-over-month. Despite recent support for iron ore prices, factors such as the ramp-up of Simandou and steel production management in northern China may exert pressure on prices into early 2026 [2][6]. Base Metals - Consumption Risks: Retail sales growth was only 1.3% year-over-year, significantly below the previous 2.9% and consensus expectations. Weak demand for durable goods and ongoing property market issues are contributing to muted consumption prospects. Industrial production growth also slowed to 4.8% year-over-year. The fragile internal consumption environment presents significant macro risks for industrial metals, with potential for downside if economic trends continue [3][6]. Coal - Demand Dynamics: Coal production and imports rose by 6% month-over-month, driven by thermal demand rather than steel-making needs. However, flat coke production and declining daily steel output indicate subdued blast furnace activity, reflecting ongoing weakness in property and construction sectors. Increased coal supply without a corresponding rise in steel demand raises caution regarding the metallurgical coal outlook [4][6]. Battery Raw Materials - EV Market Strength: Electric vehicle (EV) output remained stable with a year-over-year increase of 17%. Demand for battery raw materials is expected to accelerate, particularly due to the strength in EVs and anticipated growth in battery energy storage systems (BESS) [5][6]. Additional Important Insights - UBS View on Growth: The data from November 2025 indicates a slowdown in growth, with the finalization of the 15th Five-Year Plan and potential stimulus being key factors to watch. Rising iron ore inventories and pressures on the steel sector pose risks to iron ore prices, while base metal prices are also vulnerable due to retail sales softness. The coal market outlook is uncertain, requiring stronger demand outside of China to support prices [6][8]. - Economic Indicators: Key economic indicators from China show a decline in manufacturing PMI and retail sales, with implications for various sectors, including steel and construction. The overall economic environment suggests a cautious outlook for commodity demand moving into 2026 [8][9]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and potential opportunities within the mining and commodities sector in relation to China's economic landscape.