锂行业-需求预期上调推高缺口；上调价格并对所有纯矿业标的给予 “增持” 评级-Lithium Upward demand revisions drive larger deficits; upgrade prices and move to OW on all pure-play miners

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Lithium - Demand Revisions: Significant upward revisions in lithium demand forecasts, particularly driven by energy storage systems (ESS) and commercial vehicles, with a projection of 3.5 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2030, aligning with the upper end of consensus estimates [2][5][38] - Supply Dynamics: Despite increased supply forecasts from regions like China, Africa, and Australia, the projected deficits in the near term have widened, indicating a prolonged incentive price environment [2][5][44] - Price Forecasts: - Spodumene prices are expected to rise to $2,000 per tonne by Q4 2026, up from approximately $1,100 per tonne [2][5][12] - Lithium carbonate prices are forecasted to reach $18,000 per tonne, compared to a current spot price of around $13,500 per tonne [2][5][12] Key Insights on Demand - ESS Growth: ESS production forecast for 2026 has been raised by 17% to 900 GWh, with ESS expected to represent 32% of total LCE demand in 2026, increasing to 38% by 2030 [5][38] - EV Battery Demand: Global forecasts for battery demand in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have increased by 4-22% for the period 2026-2030, driven by larger battery sizes in commercial vehicles [5][40][42] - Commercial Vehicle Adoption: High-density truck (HDT) EV battery installations have reached a four-year high of 28%, with expectations that commercial vehicles will account for 18% of total LCE EV demand by 2026, up from 13% [5][40] Supply Forecasts - Supply Increases: Supply forecasts for 2026 have increased by approximately 7%, with longer-term forecasts rising by 14-18% [5][44] - Mine Restarts: Notable restarts include Bald Hill and Ngungaju in Australia, with Greenbushes expected to maintain throughput at approximately 9 million tonnes per annum [5][48] - Regional Contributions: - Australia is projected to contribute significantly to supply increases, while Chile and Argentina have seen slight reductions in long-term volumes [5][48] Stock Recommendations - Upgrades to Ratings: All pure-play lithium stocks have been upgraded to "Overweight" (OW), with specific price targets set for: - IGO Ltd. at A$10.20, offering approximately 50% upside [6][10][19] - Pilbara Minerals Ltd. at A$4.80, offering around 24% upside [6][10][19] - Liontown Resources at A$1.85, with a 37% upside potential [6][10][19] Market Dynamics - Deficit Projections: The market is expected to experience a deficit of 4-7% of demand in the medium term, necessitating price increases to incentivize new supply [5][12][52] - Stock Performance: Lithium miners have seen a rally of over 25% since October, closely tracking spot spodumene prices [6][21] Additional Insights - Long-term Price Stability: The long-term spodumene price remains unchanged at $1,300 per tonne, indicating a cautious approach to forecasting in a fluid market [12][13] - Global Vehicle Sales: Projections for global vehicle sales indicate a steady increase, with battery electric vehicles expected to grow significantly in market share [49] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, focusing on the lithium industry, demand and supply dynamics, stock recommendations, and market trends.