大消费景气展望：基数与大促后增速放缓，期待明年政策发力

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Consumer Sector Outlook: The consumer sector is expected to face challenges in the first half of 2026 due to the tapering of the trade-in policy, which may lead to a slowdown in durable goods consumption. However, service consumption is showing strong internal momentum, with growth expected in sectors like elderly care and home services, which may receive more policy support [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - Consumer Data Trends: In November 2025, retail sales growth fell to 1.3%, the lowest of the year, primarily due to the early Double Eleven promotions, the impact of the trade-in policy, and weakened consumer confidence due to falling housing prices [2][3]. - Trade-in Policy Impact: The decline in the trade-in policy is anticipated to negatively affect consumer spending in early 2026, particularly in durable goods like home appliances and automobiles, which are expected to see continued low growth [3][21]. - Service Consumption Growth: Service retail growth has increased from 4.9% at the beginning of the year to 5.4%, with significant contributions from education and dining sectors [4]. - Investment Recommendations: Focus on the AI industry and emerging sectors like pet economy and trendy toys. Real estate is expected to recover by 2026-2027, benefiting related industries [1][6][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - High-End Consumption and Travel Chain: The service sector in 2026 will focus on high-end consumption and travel, with recommendations for companies in the duty-free, hotel, aviation, and dining sectors, such as China Duty Free Group and hotel chains like Jin Jiang and Huazhu [7]. - Overseas Expansion Opportunities: Companies like Anker Innovations and Huakai 100 are recommended for their potential in overseas markets, despite current low stock prices [9][10]. - Alcohol and Beverage Sector: The alcohol sector is currently in a low season, but some brands are seeing price recovery due to channel control measures. The soft drink market is also expected to show potential growth despite current sales being slow [11][12][13]. - Food and Beverage Trends: The snack sector is seeing positive demand ahead of the Spring Festival, with health-oriented products like konjac and oats showing significant growth. Companies like Wancheng and Yanjinpuzi are highlighted for investment [12]. - Investment in New Consumption Areas: The new consumption sector is showing upward trends, particularly in the vaping and AI glasses markets, with companies like Smoore and Kangnai Optical recommended for their growth potential [16]. Conclusion - The consumer sector is navigating a complex landscape with both challenges and opportunities. The focus on service consumption, emerging sectors, and strategic investments in high-potential companies will be crucial for navigating the anticipated economic conditions in 2026.