全球流动性“祛魅”，中国资产“重估”

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the global liquidity environment, particularly focusing on the U.S. and Japan's monetary policies and their implications for various asset classes, including Chinese and Hong Kong stocks [1][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - Global Liquidity Concerns: The worries regarding global liquidity are easing due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's cautious rate hikes. This shift is expected to boost market confidence, especially with Trump's potential nomination of a new Fed chair [1][2]. - U.S. Economic Data: Mixed economic indicators in the U.S. show rising unemployment and lower-than-expected inflation, which strengthen the case for rate cuts in 2026. The Fed is expected to implement two 25 basis point cuts in March and July [1][5][6]. - Japanese Economic Recovery: Japan's economy is experiencing a mild recovery, with core CPI consistently exceeding the 2% target. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates cautiously in 2026, potentially twice, each by 25 basis points [7][8]. - Impact on Asset Prices: The anticipated Fed rate cuts are expected to have a diminishing impact on market prices as the liquidity premium decreases. U.S. equities may face valuation compression, necessitating a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven pricing [9][12]. - Chinese A-Shares Outlook: The Chinese A-share market is expected to benefit from improved economic fundamentals and a shift in global asset allocation logic, making it a more attractive investment option in 2026 [14]. Additional Important Content - Hong Kong Market Dynamics: The Hong Kong stock market is likely to attract capital inflows due to its valuation advantages as global liquidity conditions change. The pricing power in Hong Kong stocks is expected to shift from liquidity to fundamentals [12][13]. - Key Factors for Monitoring: Investors should focus on U.S. Treasury yields, inflation trends, and the pace of Japanese rate hikes, as these will significantly influence the performance of the Hong Kong market in the coming year [15]. - Sector-Specific Opportunities: Growth sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), software, gaming, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage are highlighted as having strong potential during the upcoming market rally [2][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and future outlooks for various asset classes.