Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - Company: Smoore International - Industry: Heated Tobacco Products (HNB) and E-cigarettes Core Insights and Arguments - Smoore International's vaping business is expected to rebound by the end of 2024, contributing approximately 40 billion RMB in market value due to regulatory adjustments in the TA framework and market normalization in Europe and the US [1][2] - The new HNB product, Glow Halo, developed by Smoore, has rapidly gained market share in Japan and achieved significant results in Poland and Italy, validating its market potential [1][4] - The overall growth rate of the HNB industry is steadily increasing, with major tobacco companies actively launching new products, anticipating accelerated penetration rates by 2030 [1][5] - Despite short-term underperformance of Glow Halo in Japan, its long-term viability is recognized, with expectations of achieving a profit target of 10 billion RMB, further boosting the company's market value [1][5] Financial Projections and Market Performance - Smoore's HNB business is projected to ship 20-30 billion units over the next two to three years, generating profits of 1-1.5 billion USD, corresponding to a market value of 25 billion RMB [1][7][15] - The vaping business is expected to contribute 40 billion RMB in market value, with a 20x valuation multiple, while the HNB segment could add another 25 billion RMB [7][17] - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue from its vaping business, driven by regulatory changes in Europe and a return of compliant products in the US market, projecting a double-digit growth rate [16] Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - BAT's Glow Halo has a market share of 1.3% in Japan, which is lower than expected, but the transition of consumers to HNB products is acknowledged to take time [8][10] - In Europe, particularly in Poland and Italy, Glow Halo is performing better than in Japan, aided by aggressive promotional activities [11] - BAT plans to cover at least 20 core countries by the end of 2026, with expectations of terminal sales exceeding 10 billion units, half of which will come from Japan [12][13] Future Catalysts and Risks - Upcoming reports from BAT in February 2026 and Smoore's performance updates in March 2026 are potential catalysts for stock price movements [18] - The company is expected to increase R&D investments in the HNB sector, with a projected profit increase of approximately 200 million RMB in 2026 [14] - The overall market sentiment is currently at a low point, but the fundamentals support a valuation of around 65 billion RMB, with potential upside from collaborations with other tobacco companies [17] Additional Important Insights - Smoore's entry into the medical aerosol sector is expected to gradually reflect its value by 2026-2027, although it has not yet contributed significantly to profits [1][7] - The dual-brand strategy of BAT in Japan, with both Hyper and Halo targeting different market segments, is designed to enhance brand image and cater to varying consumer preferences [7][10]
电子烟更新：再看HNB和思摩尔国际