公用环保-2026年年度策略：聚焦优质标的基本面优化与分红提升，“精挑细选”正当时

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the public utility and environmental protection sectors, particularly in the context of coal-fired power, renewable energy, and waste-to-energy industries [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments Coal-Fired Power Sector - In 2025, the coal-fired power sector is expected to perform well with a growth rate of approximately 13.3%, primarily due to declining coal prices [2]. - The flexibility and scarcity value of coal-fired power are highlighted, especially in regions with a high proportion of renewable energy [2][3]. - By 2026, the power supply-demand relationship is anticipated to shift towards structural looseness, leading to pressure on coal-fired utilization hours and market prices [1][3]. - New coal-fired power units are projected to peak in 2025-2026, with an annual addition of about 70 GW, increasing revenue pressure due to rising renewable energy installations [3]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on companies with controllable electricity price declines, new quality asset additions, or high dividend yields, such as Inner Mongolia Huadian and Huaneng International [1][3]. - Recommended stocks include national players like Huaneng International, Datang Power, and local companies like Inner Mongolia Haitan and Shaanxi Energy [3]. Renewable Energy Sector - The renewable energy sector is characterized by low valuations among Hong Kong-listed wind power operators, benefiting from reduced capital expenditure expectations and accelerated government subsidy recoveries [1][4]. - The cancellation of VAT refund policies in 2025 is expected to lead to more cautious capital expenditures among renewable energy operators [16]. - The sector is projected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with annual additions expected to be between 150-200 GW over the next decade [16]. Waste-to-Energy and Biomass Diesel - The waste-to-energy sector is highlighted as a key emerging area for 2026, with significant growth potential and policy support [1][5]. - The industry has seen a substantial increase in the number of waste incineration facilities, with capacity rising from 25.59 million tons/day in 2016 to 115 million tons/day by 2024 [8]. - The sector's capital expenditure peaked in 2020 at 22.3 billion yuan, declining to 10.742 billion yuan by 2024, while free cash flow turned positive for the first time in 2024 [8]. Financial Performance and Market Dynamics - The public utility sector overall saw a 3.6% increase in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.8 percentage points, while the environmental sector rose by 16.1% [6]. - Concerns regarding subsidy delays and accounts receivable are gradually easing, with companies exploring new business models to enhance profitability [7][10]. Other Important Insights - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is entering a growth phase, with demand expected to rise significantly due to EU regulations [21][22]. - The supply of Yoko (waste cooking oil) is limited, but its price has stabilized, and demand is expected to increase, benefiting companies with expansion plans [23]. - The waste-to-energy sector is also exploring international opportunities, such as projects in Indonesia, which could provide significant growth avenues for Chinese companies [9]. Recommended Companies - Key companies to watch include: - Waste-to-energy: Weiming Environmental, Huaneng International, and Longyuan Power [10][24]. - Gas sector: Hong Kong gas companies like Towngas and integrated gas companies in A-shares [13][24]. - Biomass diesel: Companies with scarce Yoko resources like Shanhai Environmental and Jiaao Environmental [24].