光纤需求迎拐点，AI板块共振

Summary of Conference Call on Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Industry Overview - The optical fiber and cable industry is experiencing high demand, expected to remain strong through 2026 and beyond, with significant investment opportunities identified for core and evolving companies [1][2] - The primary demand source is currently the telecommunications network, but emerging fields like data centers are anticipated to become important growth drivers [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - Price Trends: Optical fiber prices are expected to continue rising, driven by AI demand. The current average price for domestic optical cables is around 40-50 RMB, while overseas prices exceed 100 RMB [1][10] - Market Dynamics: China accounts for approximately 50% of global optical cable production capacity, with a demand of 250 million core kilometers. The North American market is rapidly growing and is projected to match China's demand by 2030 [1][9] - Profit Margins: Profitability in the optical cable industry is heavily reliant on upstream fiber capabilities, with gross margins around 10% for companies lacking core capabilities [1][9] Emerging Opportunities - Companies involved in North American infrastructure projects, such as Xuchuang, Xinyi, Yuanjie, and Tianfu, are highlighted for their growth potential [1][7] - Firms engaged in emerging technologies like silicon photonics and telecommunications equipment are also noted for their high order visibility and planned expansions for 2027 and 2028 [1][8] Demand Drivers - The demand for optical fibers is significantly influenced by AI, with expectations for a doubling of high-speed optical module shipments in 2026, which will correspondingly double the demand for optical fibers [3][18] - The construction of data centers in the U.S. and the implementation of the $40 billion broadband initiative are expected to further boost fiber demand [3][18] Supply Chain Insights - The optical fiber supply chain consists of preform, fiber, and cable, with the preform segment being the most challenging and profitable [6] - Current production capacity utilization rates are high, with domestic output increasing from 400 million RMB per month in 2024 to 700-800 million RMB by October 2025 [14] Market Challenges - Despite rising prices, there is currently no clear intention among domestic fiber companies to expand production due to historical volatility in demand [15] - The domestic optical cable market has seen slight production increases, primarily driven by mobile tenders, but overall growth remains limited [16] Geopolitical Influences - The use of drones, particularly in military applications, has significantly impacted fiber demand, with conflicts in Ukraine and Russia contributing to a monthly requirement of 100 million core kilometers, representing 15% of global demand [17] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus should be on leading optical fiber and cable companies such as Hengtong, Zhongtian, Changfei, and Fenghuo, which exhibit substantial elasticity [21] - Companies involved in MPO (Multi-fiber Parallel Optics) production, such as Bochuang and Taicheng, are also recommended due to their potential to benefit from North American market growth [21]