26年风电年度策略：陆风装机有支撑，看好“十五五”两海成长空间

Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The wind power industry is projected to see new installations exceeding 100 GW in 2025, representing a 25% year-on-year growth, with offshore wind installations expected to reach 8-10 GW, growing by 30-70% [1][2] - For 2026, onshore wind installations are expected to remain stable, while offshore wind installations may reach 11-13 GW, driven by developments in provinces like Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Hainan [2][8] Key Insights and Arguments - The deep-sea planning and three-year action plan, if implemented, could advance 107 GW of deep-sea road projects and reserve 100 GW of new projects, potentially accelerating industry growth from 2027 to 2030 [3][8] - The cable sector maintains high gross margins due to a clear market structure and technological upgrades, supported by interconnection orders from Europe and Asia [1][4] - The turbine sector has shown signs of reversing price competition since Q3 2024, with bidding prices rebounding over 5%, indicating potential profitability growth from increased orders in 2026 [5][19] Offshore Wind Developments - European offshore wind planning has been revised upwards, with new installations expected to increase from 2-3 GW to 12 GW by 2030, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 21% [6][7] - China has made progress in floating projects, with the UK’s Green Box project receiving subsidies, and several domestic commercial projects advancing [7][11] Challenges and Opportunities - Floating wind power commercialization faces challenges such as high costs and technological maturity, with the need for cost reduction through competitive subsidies and technological upgrades [10] - The global floating wind market is expected to reach commercial viability by 2030, with annual installations projected to grow from 200-300 MW to 1 GW, primarily driven by contributions from the UK, South Korea, and China [9][10] Profitability and Market Dynamics - The profitability of the pile and jacket sectors has been affected by declining processing fees and fixed asset depreciation, but some companies are beginning to see a turnaround in profitability [14][15] - The average price for single piles is currently below 30,000 yuan per ton, while the main body price is at least 50,000 yuan per ton, indicating potential for improved profitability with increased orders [17] Recommendations for Investors - Recommended companies include Tongguang Electric Cable, Hai Cable, Daikin Heavy Industries, Dong Cable, and others, with a positive outlook on the profitability turnaround for major turbine manufacturers like Goldwind and Mingyang [23]