中国光伏双周报：新一轮自律政策将影响供应_ China solar biweekly_ New round of self-discipline to impact supply

Summary of the China Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Solar Industry - Date: 19 December 2025 Key Points Polysilicon Market - The price of monograde polysilicon remained stable at Rmb52/kg as of the week starting 15 December, despite a previous increase to above Rmb65/kg with limited transactions [1] - Inventory levels for polysilicon were flat at 25kt week-over-week [1] - Monthly polysilicon production is forecasted to increase by 4% month-over-month to below 120kt (52GW) in December due to mild production resumption [1] Cell and Module Prices - N-type wafer prices remained unchanged at Rmb1.18/1.50 per piece for M10 and G12 [2] - The average utilization rate in the industry decreased by 5% week-over-week, with Tier 1 companies operating at 50%/48% and integrated manufacturers at 50-70% [2] - Cell prices for tunnel oxide passivated contacts (TOPcon) rose by 7.1% week-over-week to Rmb0.30 for both M10 and G12, primarily due to increased silver prices [2] - Module prices remained stable at Rmb0.69/Rmb0.76 per watt for TOPcon and back contacts [2] - Module production is expected to decline by 12% month-over-month to 44-45GW in December [2] Solar Glass Market - Solar glass prices decreased by 2.1% for 2.0mm and 1.3% for 3.2mm, reaching Rmb11.50 and Rmb18.50 per square meter, respectively [3] - Inventory levels for solar glass increased by 8.6% week-over-week to 35.92 days [3] - The price of soda ash remained unchanged at Rmb1,300 per ton [3] Industry Self-Discipline Initiatives - A new round of industry self-discipline and anti-involution efforts is being planned by leading solar companies, following the establishment of a polysilicon buyout fund platform on 9 December [4] - Major proposals include production regulations, lifting technology and energy consumption standards, cancelling export tax rebates, and adhering to low-carbon and ESG principles [4] - The industry's profitability is expected to recover amid potential self-discipline, mergers and acquisitions, and policy support in 2026 [4] Risks and Opportunities - Downside Risks: - Slower-than-expected growth in installed domestic renewable energy capacity [20] - Larger-than-expected tariff cuts for renewable energy projects [20] - Increased competition from other power resources under future power reforms [20] - Upside Risks: - Faster-than-expected growth in installed domestic renewable energy capacity [21] - Smaller-than-expected tariff cuts for renewable energy projects [21] - Market share gains for solar energy compared to other power resources under future reforms [21] Additional Insights - The ongoing self-discipline efforts in the solar industry may lead to improved profitability and stability in pricing, which could present investment opportunities in the sector [4]