钢铁行业 - 2025 年 12 月-Carbon Steel_ Investor Presentation_ Steel - December 2025

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the European Steel Industry, highlighting significant policy shifts and market dynamics affecting both Carbon Steel and Stainless Steel sectors [6][7][8]. Core Insights and Arguments Policy Changes - The EU's proposal to halve import quotas and double safeguard duties to 50% represents a strong protectionist stance, introducing additional import frictions due to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) [6][7]. - Current HRC price gains are primarily policy-driven, while end-user consumption remains weak in construction and manufacturing sectors [6]. Carbon Steel Sector - Bull Case: Preference for voestalpine due to its local-for-local strategy, superior margins, and exposure to Railway Systems, which provides earnings resilience [7]. - ArcelorMittal is noted for having the greatest operating leverage to policy tightening, benefiting from lower utilization rates and the ability to grow volumes [9]. - Least Preferred: Salzgitter and thyssenkrupp due to their higher cash needs and extensive decarbonization spending programs [9]. Stainless Steel Sector - New safeguards and the rollout of CBAM are expected to reduce import penetration by approximately 20%, supporting pricing from current depressed levels [8]. - Acerinox is favored for its resilient earnings profile and growth prospects through US expansion and high-margin alloys business [10]. - Aperam is recognized for its diversified business model and operating leverage to any European recovery [10]. Financial Performance and Valuation - ArcelorMittal shares have significantly re-rated this year, with a target price of €33.70 [9]. - voestalpine maintains relatively resilient EBITDA/t during the downturn, with manageable decarbonization risks [9]. - thyssenkrupp shares have doubled year-to-date, driven by optimism around German defense and infrastructure revenue, but face execution risks in unlocking value [9]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that construction and automotive sectors are key demand drivers for steel [19][20]. - European steel production is projected to be influenced by ongoing economic conditions and policy changes, with a focus on sustainability and decarbonization efforts [17][19]. Additional Insights - The EU steel import quotas for various products indicate a high utilization rate for imports from Turkey, India, and South Korea, while the UK and Serbia show lower utilization [88]. - The stainless steel trade flows reveal significant imports from Taiwan, India, and South Korea, indicating a diversified supply chain [91]. Conclusion - The European steel industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by policy changes, market dynamics, and evolving demand from key sectors. Companies like voestalpine and Acerinox are positioned favorably, while others face challenges related to cash flow and execution risks. The focus on sustainability and decarbonization will continue to influence investment strategies and market performance in the coming years [6][7][8][9][10].