2025-12-22 14:29Summary of U.S. Machinery & Electricals Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the machinery and electrical equipment industry, highlighting a cyclical recovery expected in 2026 after a challenging 2025, where estimates fell by 5-10% due to a downturn in core markets such as truck, agricultural, and construction equipment [1][12]. Key Points Cyclical Recovery - 2026 is anticipated to be a recovery year driven by aligned monetary and fiscal policies, which are expected to restart positive estimate revisions, with potential upside in low single digits to mid single digits [1][12]. - The recovery is not yet priced into the market, with current pricing reflecting a PMI of around 50, indicating stagnation [2][13]. Construction Equipment - Construction equipment is viewed as a tightly coiled spring, with looser monetary policy and strong fiscal impulses expected to impact the non-residential sector positively in 2026 [3][14]. - The supply/demand balance for construction equipment is tightening, with utilization rates and rental rates increasing, while inventories of used and new equipment are decreasing [3][14]. Truck and Agricultural Equipment - North American heavy-duty truck production is projected to decline by 6% year-over-year in 2026, with production expected to hit 225,000 units, which is 40,000 units below replacement levels [4][15]. - Agricultural equipment demand is expected to reach a 40-year low, declining by 10-15% year-over-year, but improving farmer profits and tighter inventories signal a potential trough [4][15]. Electrical Equipment - Demand for electrical equipment is expected to remain strong in 2026, with growth driven by data center capacity build-out, although regulatory obstacles and political factors may create friction [5][16]. - Four key factors to monitor include regulatory impacts on growth, shifts in utility capital expenditures, political implications of electricity price inflation, and the increasing importance of behind-the-meter solutions for data centers [5][16]. Investment Implications Top Stock Picks for 2026 - United Rentals (URI): Top pick with a price target of $1,128, representing a 42% potential upside, driven by a cyclical recovery and business transformation [6][17]. - Trimble (TRMB): Price target of $99, with a 25% potential upside, benefiting from low tech penetration in construction and expected earnings growth [6][18]. - Hubbell (HUBB): Price target of $530, with a 23% potential upside, expected to benefit from organic growth and a cyclical recovery [6][19]. - PACCAR (PCAR): Price target of $125, with a 12% potential upside, positioned to benefit from cyclical recovery in the truck market [6][22]. - Eaton (ETN): Price target of $395, with a 25% potential upside, navigating growth challenges but set for recovery [6][23]. Valuation Insights - The report emphasizes that many stocks in the machinery and electrical sector are undervalued, trading at a discount compared to historical averages, suggesting significant upside potential as the market recovers [12][46]. Additional Insights - The report notes that the effects of tax reform could unlock $800 billion in fiscal stimulus, positively impacting non-residential construction and truck sectors [12][46]. - The cyclical recovery is expected to lead to a double-digit growth in estimates, driven by monetary policy and fiscal stimulus [12][46]. This comprehensive outlook indicates a significant potential for recovery in the machinery and electrical sectors, with specific stocks poised to benefit from the anticipated economic conditions in 2026.