2026年发电侧电价展望

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the new energy generation sector in China, focusing on the electricity pricing trends for 2026 and the implications for various provinces and projects. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Electricity Pricing Trends: - The average electricity price for incremental photovoltaic projects is expected to decrease to 0.295 CNY/kWh, a reduction of approximately 8%. The average benchmark price for existing projects is projected to drop to 0.35 CNY/kWh, with a decline of 2.6%. Overall downward pressure on prices is manageable [1][5] - In economically developed eastern regions, the clearing price for incremental bidding in 2026 is expected to remain above 0.36 CNY/kWh, while western regions may see prices between 0.15 CNY/kWh and 0.128 CNY/kWh, highlighting significant regional disparities influenced by demand, construction costs, and policy support [1][7] 2. Market Dynamics: - The transition from government-mandated pricing to market-driven pricing is evident, with user-side pricing now adjusting based on wholesale market fluctuations. This shift complicates energy storage operations but does not eliminate peak and valley pricing [1][8] - The competition among thermal power plants is intensifying, particularly in regions like Liaoning, where retail prices have dropped significantly, leading to a preference for nuclear and renewable energy in the wholesale market [1][9] 3. Regional Characteristics: - Yunnan Province is set to eliminate the upper and lower limit pricing mechanism for clean energy transactions, moving towards market-based trading with capacity protection for thermal power [2][10] - Eastern regions (e.g., Shanghai, Jiangsu) are expected to maintain stable prices due to strong demand and policy support, while western regions (e.g., Ningxia, Xinjiang) are characterized by lower prices and significant growth potential due to favorable resource endowments [1][7] 4. Future Projections: - The average mechanism price for existing projects is expected to stabilize around 0.36 CNY/kWh, with a mild adjustment range of 1% to 3%. The market is anticipated to transition smoothly without significant volatility [4][5] - The overall market environment is conducive to the development of capacity and ancillary service markets, as the reduction in variable pricing creates opportunities for growth without significantly increasing user costs [17][19] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The 2025 long-term contract results in Jiangsu are anticipated to exert pressure on neighboring provinces, with expected average prices dropping from 0.41 CNY to 0.34 CNY. This could impact pricing strategies across the East China region [11] - The 2025 thermal power market is experiencing downward price trends, with significant competition leading to lower pricing expectations than previously anticipated [15][16] - The impact of new energy integration on system operation costs is notable, as the increase in system operation fees is outweighed by a more significant decrease in energy prices, preventing user-side costs from rising [17][19] - Investors are advised to observe the market closely, as the implementation of new policies may present opportunities for absolute returns or attract long-term capital, despite the current lack of significant positive news [20]