大金融政策及配置展望

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Real Estate - The real estate market has faced downward pressure on both volume and price since the second half of 2025, with core city housing prices accelerating their decline. A month-on-month drop of over 1% in second-hand housing prices and a cooling land market indicate a potential for policy tightening [1][2] - The debt extension phenomenon among real estate companies, including mixed-ownership and state-owned enterprises, is increasing, putting pressure on household balance sheets. Risks are spreading from isolated points to broader areas, raising the necessity for policy intervention [1][4] - The real estate market is expected to remain in an adjustment phase in 2026, with sales potentially declining by around 10%. Other indicators are likely to see double-digit declines, although the rate of decline may narrow. The market is entering the latter half of the adjustment cycle, with potential marginal improvements in the second quarter of 2026 [1][5] - During the industry adjustment period, attention should be given to quality real estate companies with inventory clearance advantages, located in prime areas, as well as stable cash flow economic leaders, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management leaders [1][6][7] Industry Overview: Insurance - The insurance sector's profitability model relies on the difference between investment yield and liability costs multiplied by leverage. Rapid inflow of new policies is reducing liability costs, confirming a trend of scale expansion. Regulatory support is favorable for leading insurance companies, and industry concentration is expected to increase in 2026 [1][8] - The insurance sector is characterized by healthy chip conditions, with a low public fund allocation ratio of approximately 0.5%. Absolute valuation levels are also low, suggesting that as pessimistic expectations recover, valuations are likely to rebound [1][9] - The focus should be on sector allocation rather than individual stock selection. If the overall market is favorable, stocks with high equity exposure like Xinhua and Ping An should be considered. For valuation recovery, Ping An and Taikang Life are recommended as preferred stocks [1][10][11] Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector has experienced significant volatility since the fourth quarter, reflecting changes in market liquidity. Early in the fourth quarter, bank stocks rose due to a decline in market risk appetite, but funds began to flow out again from late November to December, indicating a divergence in the banking sector's performance [1][12] - The city commercial bank sub-sector is expected to maintain stable growth in 2026, with quality city commercial banks showing credit growth rates above the national average. The net interest margin is stabilizing, leading to growth in net interest income, and asset quality pressure is relatively low, making it an attractive investment [1][13][14] - City commercial banks have significant advantages in loan issuance, with expected credit growth rates of 14%-15% in core regions, supported by government leverage policies and proactive project reserves [1][15] - Stabilization of net interest margins is expected to positively impact city commercial bank performance, with anticipated high growth in net interest income due to a lower expected decline in interest rates [1][16] - City commercial banks are effectively managing asset quality risks through low exposure to problematic sectors and maintaining a leading provision coverage ratio, allowing for stable profitability [1][17] - Current valuations of quality city commercial banks are notably low, with PB-ROE ratios around 0.7-0.8 and ROE levels of 14%-15%, alongside attractive dividend yields of 4.5%-5.5% [1][18]