当前时点如何看待白羽鸡价格？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the white feather chicken industry, focusing on the supply chain dynamics and pricing trends for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Price Trends: Recent increases in live chicken prices are attributed to supply-side factors, including a shortage of large chickens and lower overall output due to breeding adjustments [1][2]. - Cost Projections: The cost of raising live chickens in 2026 is expected to remain stable compared to 2025, with limited fluctuations in feed prices [1][4]. - Profit Distribution: The white feather chicken industry's profit distribution is undergoing a shift, with upstream breeding companies maintaining profit margins while the breeding segment faces pressure, leading to a trend towards minimal profitability [1][5]. - Supply Forecast: Parent stock levels are nearing February levels, with expected low output in January and February, gradually increasing from March to July, followed by a slight decrease in the latter half of the year [1][6]. - Market Dynamics: The increase in chicken breast prices since November has improved slaughterhouse profitability, enhancing the willingness to purchase live chickens [2][3]. Additional Important Content - Export Performance: The fourth quarter of 2025 saw an unexpected increase in product exports, which significantly supports overall pricing [3][15]. - Seasonal Factors: Attention is needed on seasonal factors in April and the third quarter (July-August) that could impact supply and demand dynamics [16]. - Influenza Impact: Avian influenza has a notable effect on the supply of parent stock, with restrictions on imports affecting domestic supply [9][10]. - Price Variability: The price of parent stock varies significantly, with leading breeds priced higher due to performance differences [12]. - Profitability Outlook: The breeding segment is expected to remain in a low-profit state due to pressures from both upstream and downstream pricing [18][19]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the white feather chicken industry, pricing trends, and the implications for future profitability and supply.