中国可再生能源：下调 2026 年中国新增光伏装机至 220 吉瓦（同比 - 24%）-大型发电集团因收益下降持谨慎态度-China Renewable Energy Cutting PRC 2026E New Solar Capacity to 220GW -24 YoY as Big IPP Groups Look Cautious amid Reduced Returns

Summary of China Renewable Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Renewable Energy sector, specifically the solar energy market in China. Key Points Solar Capacity Forecasts - The forecast for PRC solar installation in 2025 has been slightly raised to 290GW from 280GW based on ongoing projects, while the forecast for 2026 has been lowered to 220GW, representing a 24% year-over-year decline from 250GW [1][2] - Major Independent Power Producers (IPPs) like China Huaneng Group and National Energy Investment Group are cautious about solar capacity additions during the 15th 5-year period (2026-2030) due to profitability issues from recent projects [1] Profitability Concerns - Recent solar projects have been less profitable due to tariff cuts and high depreciation expenses from installations made in 2022-2023 when module prices were elevated [1][2] - The average on-grid tariff has decreased significantly, impacting the financial viability of new installations [2] Market Dynamics - The solar sector is noted for its cooperative attitude among enterprises, which is seen as a positive aspect amidst market challenges [1] - There is a potential negative impact on Energy Storage System (ESS) demand due to the anticipated reduction in solar installations in 2026 [2] Module Pricing and Production - China's solar module export value decreased by 16.8% year-over-year to US$21,873 million in the first 11 months of 2025, with a slight recovery in November showing an 18% year-over-year increase [3] - The module production volume is expected to decline further, with a projected drop of 10.9% year-over-year in December due to a lack of domestic installation rush [6] Inverter Market - China's inverter export value increased by 26% year-over-year in November, with significant demand from regions like Oceania and Europe [7] Company-Specific Insights Preferred Companies - The report expresses a preference for companies involved in Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and polysilicon production, specifically naming Sungrow, Deye, Tongwei, and GCL as favorable investment opportunities [1] Valuation and Risks - Ginlong Technologies has a target price of Rmb55.00 per share based on a DCF valuation, with a WACC of 10.1% [19] - Ningbo Deye Technology has a target price of Rmb102.0 per share, with a WACC of 8.4% [21] - Sungrow Power Supply has a target price of Rmb240.00, with a WACC of 7.0% [23] - Tongwei has a target price of Rmb30.00 per share, with a WACC of 9.2% [25] Risks - Key risks for these companies include lower-than-expected solar installations, increased competition, and potential trade tariffs against Chinese products [20][22][24][26] Conclusion - The solar energy market in China is facing challenges with profitability and installation forecasts, but there are still opportunities in specific segments like ESS and polysilicon production. The cautious outlook from major IPPs indicates a need for strategic investment in the sector.