光模块超级周期 -更快端口、更远传输与供应紧张背景-SemiA-Optics Super Cycle- Faster Ports, Longer Reach and Tight Supply Backdrop – SemiA

Summary of Optical Transceiver Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The optical transceiver market is poised for multi-year Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion driven by AI training and inference clusters, leading to faster port-speed upgrades and increased optical content per data center buildout [5][8][10] - Traditional data centers experienced networking speed doubling every 3-4 years, but AI is compressing upgrade cycles to every 2 years, resulting in a higher cadence of refresh and deployment across 400G, 800G, and 1.6T generations [8][10] Key Market Drivers - Structural Drivers: 1. Accelerated networking bandwidth upgrade cycles 2. Rising optical link density as more XPUs are deployed and networks scale across distances [10] - Bandwidth Demand: - Aggregate bandwidth demand is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 51,000-59,500 Pb/s by 2027 [9] - The equivalent transceiver quantity is forecasted to reach 220-253 million for 400G transceivers by 2027 [9] Market Segmentation - Scale-Out: Hyperscalers and cloud providers are increasing the number of GPU servers, which raises the number of server-to-switch and switch-to-switch links, expanding the TAM [18] - Scale-Across: Longer-reach back-end networks connecting GPU clusters across distances are adding new optical demand, with major hyperscalers already engaged in projects [19] - Scale-Up: High-bandwidth, ultra-low-latency interconnects within a single compute domain are expected to grow, with Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) becoming increasingly important [20] Investment Opportunities - Coherent Plugables: A multi-year investment theme as hyperscalers push AI-era fabrics beyond single buildings, enabling higher-order modulation and better fiber utilization [25] - Component Suppliers: Companies like Lumentum, Tower Semiconductor, and Applied Optoelectronics are highlighted as key beneficiaries due to their roles in the optical component supply chain [6][49][52] Company Highlights - Ciena: Focused on coherent optics for scale-out and scale-across architectures, integrating ZR plugables with its systems [28] - Fabrinet: Positioned as a second-derivative play in the optical transceiver ramp, benefiting from the overall growth in optics volumes [33] - Cisco/Acacia: Robust demand for plugable optics, with significant orders from major hyperscalers [35] - Lumentum: Strong growth potential in optics, with a focus on components that carry higher margins [45] - Tower Semiconductor: Expected to benefit from the EML shortage and SiPho ramps, with a significant market share in SiPho wafers [49][51] - Applied Optoelectronics: Vertically integrated with U.S.-based manufacturing, appealing to hyperscalers seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [52] Financial Metrics - Optical Transceiver Industry Comparables: - Lumentum (Market Cap: $22.7 billion, P/E: 45.5x) - Coherent (Market Cap: $26.8 billion, P/E: 29.9x) - Applied Optoelectronics (Market Cap: $1.9 billion, P/E: 57.4x) [7] Conclusion - The optical transceiver market is experiencing significant growth driven by technological advancements and increased demand from hyperscalers and cloud providers. Companies positioned within this ecosystem, particularly those focusing on coherent optics and optical components, are expected to benefit substantially from these trends.