长城基金投资策略会—A股市场走向何方？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Real Estate Market: The Chinese real estate market is expected to bottom out by 2026, with rental yields likely to exceed public housing loan rates, stimulating home buying demand. If commercial mortgage loans receive interest subsidies, it will accelerate the market's recovery, which is crucial for macroeconomic recovery [1][4][26]. - Service Industry: The service sector's contribution to GDP is currently at 56.7%, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries. Increasing holidays and creating more cultural and tourism activities can drive the development of tourism, accommodation, and dining sectors, enhancing overall consumption levels [3][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026: The macroeconomic situation will be influenced by the adjustment of the real estate market, policy direction, and expansion of domestic demand. The average growth rate over the next decade needs to exceed 4.2%, with a likely range of 4.5% to 5% for the next five years [2][5]. - "14th Five-Year Plan": This plan emphasizes technology serving industrial development and the importance of self-controlled technology. It aims to enhance the quality of traditional industries and stabilize the manufacturing sector, which is essential for solidifying the foundation of the real economy [5][6]. - Investment Opportunities: The A-share market's upward momentum in 2026 will shift from being solely valuation-driven to a dual drive of earnings and valuation. Focus areas include semiconductors, military industry, chemicals, consumer services, and the real estate industry chain [2][19][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - Fiscal Policy: The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain proactive, with the central government possibly increasing leverage through a higher deficit rate or issuing long-term special bonds to stimulate economic growth [11][12]. - Global Liquidity: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue lowering interest rates and may restart quantitative easing, leading to a more accommodative global liquidity environment, positively impacting global markets, including A-shares [14][15]. - Consumer Spending: The current consumer spending rate in China is 39.9%, which has significant room for improvement compared to Japan and the U.S. Measures to increase residents' income and consumption willingness are crucial for boosting domestic demand [3][7]. Real Estate Market Insights - Market Adjustment: The adjustment phase of the real estate market is expected to conclude by 2026, with rental yields currently at 2.4% and commercial mortgage rates between 3% and 3.05%. A slight adjustment in housing prices could lead to rental yields surpassing public housing loan rates, stimulating demand [2][4][26]. Investment Strategies for 2026 - Focus on Domestic Demand: Investment strategies should concentrate on sectors benefiting from domestic demand, particularly in semiconductors, military, chemicals, and consumer services. The real estate sector is also expected to present opportunities as it stabilizes [24][25]. - Fixed Income Products: Fixed income products are becoming essential tools for medium to low-risk investments, especially in a low-interest-rate environment. Convertible bonds, which offer both stock options and debt protection, are particularly noteworthy [27][28][36]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment for the A-share market in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a shift towards a dual drive of earnings and valuation. The focus on domestic demand and the potential recovery of the real estate market present significant investment opportunities [19][24].