美国软质消费品_行业展望_2026 年初有望表现良好-US Softlines Retail _Industry Outlook_ Expect a Good 2026 Start_ Sole_ Industry Outlook_ Expect a Good 2026 Start

Summary of US Softlines Retail Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US Softlines Retail industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 based on consumer sentiment and spending intentions [2][4]. Core Insights 1. Consumer Sentiment Improvement: Recent survey data shows US consumers are feeling more optimistic, leading to a more bullish stance on Softline stocks compared to the previous month [2][3]. 2. Holiday Season Expectations: A satisfactory finish to the 2025 Holiday season is anticipated, with few companies expected to miss consensus EPS expectations for Q4 [2][4]. 3. Spending Intentions: Consumer spending intentions for softgoods over the next 90 days are projected to increase by 2.9% year-over-year, with a 535 basis points acceleration month-over-month [4][14]. 4. Fiscal Stimulus Impact: The potential for US fiscal stimulus is expected to drive sales growth in the Softline industry, contributing to stock momentum into January 2026 [2][3]. Financial Metrics 1. P/E Ratio Analysis: Softline stocks currently have a P/E ratio 10% above the past 10-year average, yet a 24% potential upside is identified, suggesting further P/E expansion as spending growth rates improve [3][4]. 2. Stock Recommendations: Analysts favor stocks such as ONON, RL, GIL, LEVI, and others, while advising against NKE and Sell-rated M, KSS, and DDS [3]. Consumer Behavior Insights 1. Spending Plans: 27.0% of consumers plan to spend more this Holiday season, compared to 23.2% who plan to spend less, marking a 380 basis points improvement from the past 11-year average [8]. 2. Post-Christmas Shopping: 70.1% of shoppers intend to participate in post-Christmas sales, slightly down from the previous year but above the 10-year average [8][91]. 3. Shopping Completion Rates: 44.2% of consumers had completed their Holiday shopping by the survey date, an increase of 160 basis points year-over-year [8]. Economic Outlook 1. Consumer Confidence: Confidence among consumers has increased across all income demographics, with notable improvements in spending intentions among middle-income consumers [9][28]. 2. Financial Security: 42% of respondents feel they are saving enough for future needs, up 120 basis points month-over-month, indicating improved financial security [9][79]. 3. Wealth Perception: 22% of consumers feel wealthier than the previous year, the highest percentage since 2019, with the average value of financial assets (excluding homes) at $472K, up 8% year-over-year [9][66]. Additional Insights 1. Concerns Over Economic Factors: Consumers are less worried about macro issues like inflation and tariffs, which may contribute to their improved willingness to spend [5][9]. 2. Demographic Spending Trends: Upper- and middle-income consumers, who account for approximately 90% of industry spending, are showing stronger spending intentions compared to lower-income households [9]. 3. Political Influence on Spending: The report notes differences in spending intentions based on political affiliation, with Democrats showing lower confidence and willingness to spend compared to Republicans [99][100]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the positive trajectory of the US Softlines Retail industry, driven by improved consumer sentiment, spending intentions, and potential fiscal stimulus effects.