中国经济-12 月增长疲软、财政支出不足（年初至今）、11 月数据低迷-China Economic Comment _ China Weekly_ Weak Dec growth, fiscal under-spending YTD, subdued Nov data

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - China's Economic Performance: The economic indicators for December show a continued weakness in various sectors, including real estate, retail, and manufacturing, with significant year-on-year contractions in property sales and auto retail sales [2][4][5]. Key Economic Indicators - Property Sales: 30-city property sales experienced a deep year-on-year contraction of -30% in the first 20 days of December, slightly improving from -33% in November [2][8]. - Port Cargo Throughput: Growth in port cargo throughput decreased to 2% year-on-year in early December from 3% in November, indicating a slowdown in trade activity [2][20]. - Container Freight Index: The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) increased by 1% week-on-week but remains down by 25% year-on-year, while the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rebounded by 11% week-on-week but is down 35% year-on-year [2][19]. - Steel Production: Steel production decline narrowed to -11% year-on-year in early December from -14% in November, suggesting a slight recovery in industrial activity [2][16]. - Auto Sales: Auto retail sales dropped significantly to -24% year-on-year in the first 14 days of December, compared to -7% in November, reflecting the impact of high base effects from previous trade-in subsidies [2][13]. Fiscal Performance - Fiscal Revenue: General fiscal revenue growth softened to 0% year-on-year in November from 3% in October, with tax revenue slowing to 3% year-on-year from 9% [3][32]. - Fiscal Expenditure: General fiscal expenditure declined less sharply by -4% year-on-year in November, compared to -10% in October, indicating a potential easing of fiscal constraints [3]. - Local Land Sales: Revenue from local land sales remained weak at -27% year-on-year, contributing to a subdued government fund revenue of -16% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - GDP Growth Expectations: Anticipated GDP growth for Q4 is around 4.2% year-on-year, with full-year 2025 GDP growth averaging 4.9%, aligning with the government's target of "around 5%" [6]. - Policy Stance for 2026: The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is expected to set a GDP growth target of "4.5-5%" for 2026, with a focus on stable fiscal policies and innovation [6]. Additional Insights - Investment Trends: The "new economy" sector is expected to continue demonstrating robust growth despite overall economic challenges [6]. - Currency Movements: The RMB appreciated against the USD by 0.5% since the end of November, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 3.5% [2][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical economic indicators and trends discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and potential areas of growth within the Chinese economy.