房地产2026年展望：调结构待转型，提质量新发展

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry in China, particularly the outlook for 2026 and the trends observed in 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Market Trends - In early 2025, the de-stocking cycle in the real estate market decreased, but began to rise again in April due to a cooling market, indicating inventory pressure [1][3]. - The proportion of land investment in real estate has increased since 2020, reflecting a contraction in construction investments by real estate companies [1][3]. - The sales price of residential properties is highly correlated with the land price from eight months prior, suggesting that future new home sales prices may rise due to increased land acquisition costs [1][4]. Sales and Inventory Projections - For 2026, both broad and narrow inventory levels are expected to decline, although the absolute value of narrow inventory remains high due to reduced construction activity [1][6]. - The forecast for national commodity housing sales area in 2026 is projected to be below 870 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decline of 4%-5% [1][6]. - New construction is expected to decline by 14%-15% year-on-year, with overall real estate investment anticipated to drop by over 10% [1][6]. Urbanization and Economic Impact - China's urbanization rate has surpassed 65%, and its impact on the real estate market is diminishing as the country approaches a more mature stage of urbanization [1][7][8]. - Since 2018, the contribution of real estate to GDP has been declining, which aligns with a decrease in land transfer fees contributing to local government finances [1][10]. Credit Policy and Market Recovery - The real estate industry is heavily reliant on credit policies, and the current phase in China is transitioning from credit easing to real estate recovery, which may take time [2][12]. - The expectation is that industry valuations may recover as stable real estate market policies are implemented, which could boost investor confidence [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - The relationship between urbanization and real estate market growth is changing, with the need to meet improvement, renewal, and investment demands becoming more critical for sustainable development [1][7]. - The historical context shows that during economic slowdowns, real estate can still contribute positively to economic growth due to factors like low-interest rates and increased disposable income [1][11]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding the real estate industry's current state and future outlook, highlighting the challenges and potential recovery paths.