对话电力：2026年电力供需展望

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electricity supply and demand outlook for 2026, focusing on the power generation industry, particularly renewable energy sources like wind and solar, as well as nuclear and thermal power generation [1][2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - Electricity Demand Growth: The total electricity consumption in society is expected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, influenced by GDP growth and the elasticity coefficient of electricity demand [1][2]. - Renewable Energy Installations: - Wind power installations are projected to remain around 100 GW, with a significant acceleration in offshore wind construction [1][2]. - Solar power installations are expected to be between 150-175 GW, but the actual figures will depend on the first half of the year [1][3]. - Utilization Hours Decline: Due to the pressure of renewable energy consumption, the utilization hours for wind and solar power are expected to continue declining, potentially affecting around 50 hours of utilization time [1][3][10]. - Growth Rates for Renewable Energy: - Wind power generation is expected to grow at a rate of 14-15%, while solar power growth is anticipated to drop significantly from over 30% to around 15% [1][3][10]. - Energy Storage Impact: Energy storage is recognized as a positive factor for improving the consumption environment of renewable energy, but its short-term impact is limited. Significant benefits are expected to manifest from 2027 onwards [1][5][11]. - Nuclear Power Expansion: - Nuclear power is entering an accelerated production phase during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with six conventional large units expected to be operational in 2026, leading to a projected growth rate of about 10% for nuclear power generation in 2026 and 13-14% in 2027 [6][7][12]. - Thermal Power Trends: - Thermal power generation is expected to see a slight increase in 2026, while coal power may experience a small negative growth. The competitive edge of coal power is expected to peak between 2025 and 2027 before gradually declining [2][8][13]. - Coal Consumption Trends: The overall coal consumption per kilowatt-hour is on a downward trend, but there is a potential for an increase due to the deep peak regulation of thermal power, which could raise coal consumption levels [9][14]. Other Important Insights - Elasticity Coefficient: The elasticity coefficient of electricity demand fell below 1 in the first half of 2025 but is expected to stabilize around 1 in 2026, indicating a recovery in electricity demand [2][10]. - Hydropower Stability: Hydropower generation is subject to natural conditions and is expected to remain relatively stable despite fluctuations [1][12]. - Future Monitoring: Continuous monitoring of policy support, technological advancements, and market investments is crucial for the future development of energy storage and its impact on the renewable energy sector [5].