同力股份20251224

Summary of the Conference Call for Tongli Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - Traditional oil vehicles will not disappear in the short term, but will be rapidly replaced by new energy vehicles in open-pit coal mining. Non-coal sectors will still see the presence of oil vehicles due to low transport volumes and high costs [2][3] - The overseas market will continue to rely on oil vehicles for the next two to three years due to infrastructure limitations and customer hesitance towards new energy products [2][3] Company Insights - Tongli Co., Ltd. has developed a prototype of a cabless autonomous mining truck, which has completed trial production but has not yet been priced for sale. The removal of the cab aims to enhance load capacity, optimize maintenance, and reduce costs by approximately 1.5% to 2% [2][4] - The company currently has no clear timeline for mass production or sales targets for 2026 for its autonomous trucks. The focus is on vehicle manufacturing, while the intelligent driving system is chosen by customers for retrofitting [2][5] - The market share of Tongli Co., Ltd. in the autonomous driving sector is approximately 40%, which is higher than its overall product market share [2][7] Sales and Market Trends - In 2025, the sales proportion of traditional oil vehicles has dropped below 50%, with new energy products exceeding 60%. However, traditional oil vehicles will still exist, particularly in non-coal sectors [3][7] - The sales volume of autonomous vehicles in the second half of 2025 is expected to remain stable or see slight growth compared to the first half, but specific sales targets for 2026 have not been established [7] - The autonomous mining truck industry is expected to grow, driven by national policy guidance and a shortage of drivers as older generations retire [8] Challenges and Strategies - Tongli Co., Ltd. faces challenges in expanding its overseas market due to insufficient sales and service channels compared to competitors like SANY and XCMG. The company plans to focus on quality and profitability rather than merely increasing market share [9][10] - The company aims for a market share of 35% in the short term, with a long-term goal of reaching 40% [22] Product Development and Market Position - The cabless autonomous mining truck is designed to increase cargo capacity by 5% to 10% and extend battery life, improving overall efficiency [4] - The company does not plan to produce large oil trucks due to a lack of competitive advantage in imported engines and transmissions, focusing instead on electric large trucks [25] Financial Performance and Projections - In 2025, domestic sales are projected to be between 13,000 to 15,000 units, a decline of 30% to 40% year-on-year. However, the higher price of electric vehicles is expected to mitigate revenue losses [19][24] - The after-sales service revenue is anticipated to reach 20% to 30% of total revenue in the future, with profitability levels approaching that of vehicle sales [27] Conclusion - The overall demand for open-pit coal mining vehicles is expected to remain stable or slightly decline in 2026, with a focus on replacing existing stock with new energy and autonomous technologies [12][21]