国七排放趋势展望

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the implementation of the National 7 (国七) emission standards in China, which are expected to be released in the first half of 2026 and implemented in 2027, later than previously anticipated due to the lack of urgency from automakers exporting primarily electric vehicles to Europe [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Cost Implications: The implementation of the National 7 standards will increase costs for gasoline vehicles by approximately 1,500 to 3,500 yuan and for diesel vehicles by 20,000 to 30,000 yuan due to the need for advanced components such as electric heating catalysts and nitrogen oxide sensors [1][3][4]. - Commercial Vehicles Timeline: The rollout of National 7 standards for commercial vehicles is expected to occur no earlier than 2028, primarily due to the complexity and cost of upgrading heavy-duty diesel vehicles [5]. - Comparison with Euro 7 Standards: Euro 7 standards impose stricter nitrogen oxide controls, which will increase the demand for nitrogen oxide sensors and raise manufacturing costs for vehicles [6][7]. - Impact on Export Competitiveness: China's ability to meet Euro 7 standards is not critical for its electric vehicle exports to Europe, as these vehicles are primarily electric. However, the competitiveness of fuel vehicles in markets like the Middle East and Southeast Asia, which follow Euro 5 or Euro 6 standards, remains strong due to lower pricing [8][10]. Additional Important Content - Dual Track System: The National 7 standards may adopt a dual-track system, allowing for both individual vehicle emission limits and average corporate emission limits, which could alleviate some cost pressures for manufacturers [3][10]. - Technological Developments: Some leading domestic automakers are already developing technologies to comply with Euro 7 standards, indicating proactive measures in anticipation of stricter regulations [12]. - Potential Subsidies: While there is no clear indication of government subsidies for passenger vehicles to meet new regulations, there may be future support for commercial vehicles to adapt to new environmental standards [12]. - Phased Implementation: The National 7 standards are expected to be implemented in phases, starting with pilot regions before a nationwide rollout, differing from previous strategies by not splitting into two phases [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call regarding the National 7 emission standards, their implications for the automotive industry, and the strategic responses from manufacturers.