2026年原油价格如何展望？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the global oil market outlook for 2026, focusing on factors affecting oil prices, demand, and supply dynamics in the context of geopolitical risks and OPEC's production strategies [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Oil Price Trends: - Brent crude oil prices are expected to average between $60 and $65 per barrel in 2026, with a higher probability of staying above $60. The lowest price could drop below $55, but below $50 is unlikely. Geopolitical events could push prices up to $77-$80 [2][9]. - OPEC's Production Strategy: - OPEC has increased production by a cumulative 2.05 million barrels per day since April 2025, impacting market supply. The organization has a remaining capacity of 3.52 million barrels per day to adjust supply as needed [2][13]. - Global Oil Demand: - Global oil demand growth is projected to be 900,000 barrels per day in 2026, which is below historical averages. The demand elasticity related to GDP growth is weakening due to the increasing effect of renewable energy alternatives [1][12][14]. - China's Oil Demand: - China's refined oil demand peaked in 2023 and is expected to decline by 4% in 2025. The rapid penetration of electric vehicles is contributing to this decline, with the penetration rate expected to reach 58% in 2026 [15][16][21]. - Geopolitical Risks: - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including sanctions against Russia and potential conflicts involving the U.S. and Venezuela, are significant factors that could influence oil prices and market stability [1][10][11]. Additional Important Insights - Shipping Costs: - Shipping costs have surged, with rates from the Middle East to China rising to $2.3 per barrel and potentially reaching $4-$8 by year-end due to compliance shifts and a shortage of new ship orders [7]. - Global Inventory Levels: - As of December 2025, global commercial oil inventories stood at 3.1 billion barrels, with levels outside of China being notably low, providing price support [8]. - Future of Diesel Demand: - Diesel demand in China is expected to decline by approximately 5% due to the rise of LNG and new energy heavy trucks, alongside a sluggish construction sector [19]. - Aviation Fuel Growth: - Aviation fuel is one of the few refined oil products expected to maintain growth, with a projected increase of around 4% in the coming years, driven by international flight demand [20]. Conclusion - The global oil market is entering a phase of moderate growth, with significant shifts in demand patterns, particularly from China. Geopolitical factors and OPEC's production decisions will play crucial roles in shaping the market landscape through 2026 and beyond [21].