生猪：回顾与展望

Summary of the Pig Farming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The pig farming industry in 2025 is experiencing multiple changes, including a decrease in the proportion of smallholders to about 10%, accelerated integration of feed companies into pig farming, increased government regulation on production capacity, and continuous improvement in production efficiency with stable growth in PSY (Pigs Weaned per Sow per Year) data. However, the industry is facing overall losses [1][2]. Key Points Market Dynamics - In 2025, pig prices are expected to rise initially but decline later, with profitability in the first half of the year. By the end of September, the industry began to incur losses, with self-breeding costs around 6-6.1 CNY/kg and market prices dropping to 5.6-5.7 CNY/kg [1][4]. - The number of breeding sows has increased by 1% according to official data, while Yongyi's data shows an 8% increase, indicating significant supply pressure and a year-on-year price drop of at least 6 CNY/kg [1][5]. Changes in Industry Structure - The market share of large-scale enterprises has increased, with listed companies holding 30% of the breeding sow inventory and pig output. The definition of smallholders has changed, with those producing fewer than 200 pigs per year now representing only about 10% of the market [2]. - Integration of feed, breeding, and slaughtering industries is accelerating, with companies like Bangji entering pig farming and collaborating with farmers [2]. Policy and Production Efficiency - The government has intensified regulatory measures since June 2025, holding monthly meetings with leading companies to address declining pig prices and industry losses [2]. - Production efficiency is improving, with PSY data indicating an increase. Official PSY is reported at 22, while Yongyi's data shows 24, with an annual growth rate of about 0.7-0.8 pigs [2][3]. Future Price Expectations - It is anticipated that in the first half of 2026, pig prices will remain below cost, potentially leading to a reduction in production capacity. However, the piglet market still holds profit potential, with piglet prices around 200 CNY for 7 kg weaned piglets against a cost of 260-280 CNY [7]. - If production capacity decreases in the first half of 2026, a price rebound may occur in the second half, with increased price volatility expected next year [7]. Weight and Market Performance - Current average weights for pig output are 129.7 kg for Yongyi data, with a slight decrease from the previous week. Group farms maintain an average weight of 124.34 kg, while smallholders average 147.65 kg [8]. - In December 2025, there was no significant reduction in weight for group farms, contrasting with the previous year when weight reductions began [9]. Differentiation Between Smallholders and Large Farms - Smallholders have reduced numbers due to past disease losses but have increased output weights. In contrast, large-scale farms focus on standard pigs, leading to a widening price gap between fat pigs and standard pigs [10]. Impact of Seasonal Consumption - The influence of seasonal consumption on pig prices has diminished, with limited price increases observed before the winter solstice [12]. Overall Market Outlook - The overall performance in 2025 is considered moderate, with self-breeding operations yielding a profit of about 1 CNY/kg, while external piglet purchases are generally at a loss. The profit outlook for 2026 is expected to resemble that of 2023 [14]. - The certainty of production capacity reduction in the first half of 2026 is high, with smallholders and medium-sized farms expected to be the main contributors to this reduction [15][16]. Production Efficiency and Disease Impact - Future PSY growth is expected to slow to 0.3-0.5 pigs, with many medium-sized farms planning to upgrade to better-performing sow breeds [18]. - In a low-price environment, low-cost producers have a competitive advantage, and while disease impacts are present, they are not as severe as in previous years [19].